New Jersey Devils
38-39-5, 81 Pts. 7th Metro, 23rd Overall
3.22 GF/GP (12th), 3.43 GA/GP (26th), 22.5 PP% (13th), 80.7 PK% (10th)
Top scorer: Jesper Bratt. 82 GP. 27-56-83, 27 PPP, 248 Shots, 19:18 TOI/GP
2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds:
Opening: +1300
Current: +1100 (as of August 22, 2024)
Ticket: 3.4%. Handle: 3.5% (as of August 22, 2024)
2023-24 Fantasy Recap
Relative to the prior season, yeah, it wasn’t good. The Devils have a ton of promise, and a disappointing 2023-24 season still hasn’t diminished that thought, but it was tough to watch. Jack Hughes missed time due to injury, which has become an annual thing; Timo Meier didn’t really find his groove until late in the season; Dougie Hamilton lasted just 20 games; the goaltending was mostly atrocious; and by the end of the season, both head coach Lindy Ruff and interim head coach Travis Green were no longer with the team. Most of the Devils’ players failed to live up to their average draft position.
On the bright side, Jesper Bratt emerged as a point-per-game threat that nobody seems to know about, and Luke Hughes quickly established himself as a bona fide top-four defenseman in his rookie season and finished third in Calder voting. Bratt, in particular, was a great value pick, leading the Devils in scoring with 83 points. Dawson Mercer, when he got a chance to skate with the top-six, and Erik Haula, who played a lot with Hughes, were erstwhile streamers in the right situations.
Ultimately, the Devils’ fantasy options were a mixed bag, and managers who were looking for the Devils to take the next step instead saw them stumble to a bottom-10 finish. A late-season attempt to salvage whatever playoff hopes remained also didn’t pan out with Jake Allen going 6-6-1 to close out the campaign. There was a lot of initial interest in Allen going from the lottery-bound Habs to the Devils, but he, too, couldn’t help but fade down the stretch. The losses can’t be pinned on any one player — some of it was just pure bad luck — but it was significant enough to spur significant changes over the summer.
2024-25 Fantasy Outlook
A healthy roster would’ve been nice, but even before training camp began, the Devils were dealt a significant blow with Luke Hughes missing up to eight weeks due to a shoulder injury. It’s not a great start despite some excellent off-season moves, chief among them the acquisition of Jacob Markstrom, whose trade to the Devils fell through late last season, and the hiring of Sheldon Keefe, who helped shepherd the Maple Leafs’ current core to where it is today. His job will be similar in Jersey, and there’s little reason to think he won’t be able to do it.
On the plus side, Hamilton is healthy after recovering from a torn pectoral muscle, and Simon Nemec is ready to play full-time after spending a part of last season in the AHL. Jack Hughes is also healthy, and he will once again spearhead the attack.
Hughes is a dynamic offensive talent worthy of a first-round pick in most standard and keeper leagues. The question now is where Hughes stacks up against the league’s best. Could he one day be in the same tier as the NHL’s super elite, or is he a perennial 100-point producer who’s unlikely to win any Art Ross trophies in the Connor McDavid era? (To be fair, anybody playing in the McDavid era is unlikely to win the Art Ross other than McDavid himself). I asked THN New Jersey editor Kristy Flannery the same question because she would have as much insight as anyone:
My instant reaction is ‘no’ just because of the amount of talent around the NHL. Hughes is New Jersey’s star forward and is among the league’s best. Still, I have difficulty putting him in the same category as Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, and Nathan MacKinnon…at least not yet. At 23 years old, Hughes is still growing and developing his game. It’s impressive to see how much he has already accomplished before hitting his prime, but I wouldn’t place him in the top five in scoring yet. Could you ask me again in a couple of years?
Beyond Hughes, the supporting cast in the top-six is quite strong and they will be well-represented in fantasy yet again. Hischier’s a great option, and the gap between him and Hughes is much closer in leagues that count face-off wins. Meier should bounce back (he’s healthy after undergoing off-season shoulder surgery) and Bratt will not fall into the middle rounds this season. Hamilton should be an early pick, and being ranked 69th in Yahoo’s pre-season rankings despite playing just 20 games last season shows how much recognition he has in the fantasy community.
In Markstrom, the Devils finally have a reliable starter, their first following Martin Brodeur and Cory Schneider in the cap era. His fantasy value skyrocketed following the trade from the Flames, who are somewhere between the lottery and purgatory. Of course, the biggest risk to the Devils is injury; both Jack Hughes and Markstrom have lengthy histories, and if either of them misses a significant chunk of time, the rest of the roster will be impacted negatively.
2024-25 Projected Lineup
Even Strength
Jesper Bratt – Jack Hughes – Timo Meier
Ondrej Palat – Nico Hischier – Dawson Mercer (RFA)
Tomas Tatar – Erik Haula – Stefan Noesen
Paul Cotter – Curtis Lazar – Nathan Bastian
Jonas Siegenthaler – Dougie Hamilton
Brenden Dillon – Brett Pesce
Kurtis MacDermid – Simon Nemec
Jacob Markstrom – Jake Allen
ex: Nolan Foote, Max Willman, Johnathan Kovacevic
Injured: Luke Hughes (shoulder, out 6-8 weeks as of Sept. 12)
Power Play
Meier – Hischier – Bratt – J. Hughes – Hamilton
Palat – Haula – Mercer – Noesen – Nemec
James Carey Lauder-Imagn Images
Sleeper: Timo Meier, LW/RW
Meier was on pace for 33 goals last season and yet it felt like he was a huge disappointment. We’re not looking for 50 goals here, but a 40-goal season where he potentially comes close to 300 shots (there are a lot of mouths to feed) with 100-plus hits is not out of the question. That would make Meier incredibly valuable in banger leagues, and yet he’s ranked outside the top 100 in Yahoo’s pre-season rankings. Last season, only 17 players scored 40 goals.
The Devils and their fans have yet to see the best of Timo Meier. The power forward has a great supporting cast in New Jersey. Whether it is Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes, the amount of talent around him makes it possible for Meier to exceed his career-high 35 goals to reach the 40-goal mark. With the loss of Tyler Toffoli, general manager Tom Fitzgerald is looking at his remaining forwards to fill the void and contribute to the scoresheet. Meier has an opportunity to be that guy in New Jersey this season.
– THN New Jersey editor Kristy Flannery
Breakout: Simon Nemec, D
Quite frankly, I don’t think it’s ridiculous to say that one day Nemec might better than both Hamilton and youngest Hughes. The question is: Will that translate to fantasy?
With Hughes expected to miss the start of the season, expect Hamilton to quarterback PP1 and Nemec to likely take over on PP2. While the Devils will be leaning on PP1 heavily, having exposure to special teams will at least give Nemec a small boost.
His underlying metrics in 60 games last season were fantastic. I think the points and shots might be capped, but there will at least be some value in blocked shots. I’m not sure if Nemec will be worth rostering all season — I can definitely see him being a streamer — but this is the season where everyone’s going to find out how good he is.
Simon Nemec has been so good. Man, New Jersey is so stacked for many years. And Nemec has only an ELC until 2026. Incredible. The Devils definitely should add a legit number one goalie & they’d make a dynasty in our opinion. pic.twitter.com/CcrpL4M6gf
— Rono (@RonoAnalyst) January 3, 2024
Bounce-back: Dougie Hamilton, D
Hamilton gets PP1, but what happens when Hughes returns? Perhaps that’s a question to be answered at a later time, but note last season Hughes averaged 3:27 PP TOI/GP compared to Hamilton’s 1:41. We shall see what Keefe decides to do, but no doubt his decision will have huge implications in fantasy.
Certainly, the Hughes brothers’ have some built-in chemistry, but Hamilton has the longer and stronger track record. In his second season with the Devils, Hamilton scored 22 goals and 74 points, and would’ve been on pace for a similar total last season if not for injuries. He’s expected to be healthy to start the season after a torn pectoral limited him to just 20 games in 2023-24.
Hamilton just turned 31 in June, which means he’s got plenty of good years left in him. I think the one clear advantage he has over youngest Hughes is that Hamilton is much more willing to shoot the puck. At his best, Hamilton was firing well over 250 shots per season, something only six (!) other defensemen have done in multiple seasons in the cap era: Brent Burns, Dustin Byfuglien, Roman Josi, Erik Karlsson, Dion Phaneuf and Shea Weber.
By default, Dougie Hamilton [is likely going to score more points] as Luke Hughes is sidelined for six to eight weeks with a shoulder injury. Last season, Hamilton was limited to 20 games before sustaining a season-ending injury. In those 20 games, he had 16 points. The defenseman’s presence was clearly missed, especially on the power play. In 2022-23, Hamilton earned a career-high 74 points, and if he remains healthy this season, I would expect a similar production.
– THN New Jersey editor Kristy Flannery
Bust: Tomas Tatar, LW
In the grand scheme of things, Tatar is not relevant in fantasy. But in his previous stint with the Devils, he was particularly effective with 78 points in 158 games. A one-time perennial 20-goal scorer, Tatar will be 34 years old in December and there’s just too much quality depth in the Devils’ top-six to see Tatar in that role.
He’ll have some fantasy value if he can get himself on PP2, but minutes will also be tough to come by with that unit. The Devils also signed Stefan Noesen in the off-season, and he’s the better power-play specialist, not to mention three years younger. Coming off a disappointing season, it’s hard to pinpoint any Devil being a bust, but I think he’ll play a lesser role than Noesen or even Paul Cotter.
Goalies
Keefe has a history of splitting starts and not overly relying on one goalie, but it’s Markstrom’s net for sure. Granted, Keefe’s never quite had a workhorse goalie like Markstrom, who’s played over 60 games twice in his career. Markstrom’s a strange and somewhat unpredictable goalie; for a two-season stretch with the Canucks he was excellent, but in his subsequent four seasons with the Flames, he only had one truly good season.
His inconsistency can be a bit perplexing, though Markstrom has mentioned before that the more he plays, the better he can play because he gets into a rhythm. With a capable backup in Allen, does Keefe give Markstrom that chance or will he want to save him for the playoffs?
Regardless, Markstrom’s fantasy value has increased quite a bit since the trade from the Flames. Though I wouldn’t rank Markstrom in the top 10 quite yet, he certainly has the potential to do so based on the potential for wins. He’s such an up-and-down goalie from season-to-season (in the past) that I find Markstrom a little scary, but given that reliable starters is a wasteland anyway, I think there are many worse options out there. I wouldn’t recommend using a high pick on Markstrom, but in the middle rounds, he’s worth a gamble.
Jason’s Top 5 Point Projections
(based on 82 games)
Jack Hughes, C – 40-60-100
Jesper Bratt, LW – 28-49-77
Nico Hischier, C – 29-45-74
Timo Meier, RW – 32-31-63
Dougie Hamilton, D – 13-39-52
Yahoo Pre-season Rankings
14. Jack Hughes, C/LW
53. Jesper Bratt, LW/RW
69. Dougie Hamilton, D
81. Jacob Markstrom, G
96. Nico Hischier, C
105. Timo Meier, LW/RW
119. Luke Hughes, D
214. Dawson Mercer, C
246. Erik Haula, C/LW
290. Stefan Noesen, LW/RW
298. Jake Allen, G
421. Paul Cotter, C
427. Nico Daws, G
482. Tomas Tatar, LW
499. Ondrej Palat, LW
567. Brett Pesce, D
720. Simon Nemec, D
Click here to join the new THN Fantasy roundtable to discuss!
Remember to bookmark The Hockey News Fantasy site for stats, news, analysis, rankings, projections and more, including the Sleepers and Keepers fantasy hockey podcast!
Related:
Related: 2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Team Preview: Florida Panthers
Related: 2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Team Preview: Carolina Hurricanes
Click the image below to receive your free issue of the 2024-25 THN Poolbook.
