Tesla is set to announce its third-quarter vehicle production and delivery figures on Wednesday. According to estimates from FactSet StreetAccount, analysts expect the automaker to report approximately 463,310 deliveries, including around 435,900 units of its Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs.
In the same period last year, Tesla reported 435,059 deliveries and 430,488 vehicles produced, before the Cybertruck became available.
More recently, for the second quarter of 2024, Tesla announced 443,956 deliveries and 410,831 vehicles produced. If Tesla meets analysts’ expectations, this would mark a 6.5% year-over-year increase in deliveries after declines in both the first and second quarters of 2024.
Although Tesla doesn’t explicitly define deliveries in its financial disclosures, this metric is considered the closest approximation to the number of units sold.
During the third quarter, Tesla continued offering a range of incentives and financing options, particularly in mainland China, the largest market for electric vehicles, to drive sales volumes.
Tesla has not provided specific guidance for its full-year deliveries in 2024. However, the company has indicated that it expects delivery growth to be lower this year compared to last.
Wells Fargo, citing the lack of guidance, predicted in a note that Tesla will deliver approximately 1.63 million vehicles for the year, with third-quarter deliveries estimated at around 440,000—slightly below consensus.
Goldman Sachs recently projected that Tesla’s deliveries and production would align with consensus estimates, largely driven by strong performance in China. The firm also recommended buying call options in anticipation of the Wednesday report.
Tesla shares have surged by more than 20% in the past month, driven by expectations of year-over-year and sequential delivery improvements in the third quarter, as well as anticipation for the company’s “Robotaxi Day” event on October 10.
Tesla plans to host its “We, Robot” marketing event at a Warner Bros. Discovery studio in Los Angeles. The company is expected to unveil the design of a “dedicated robotaxi,” which Elon Musk has previously referred to as the CyberCab.
Additionally, Tesla may provide updates on its humanoid robot project “Optimus,” along with other AI-driven products and services.
Despite the excitement around Tesla’s innovation, the company saw a decline in EV sales and revenue during the first half of 2024. Tesla has also yet to deliver a fully autonomous self-driving system capable of operating as a robotaxi without a human driver ready to intervene.
The company recently renamed its premium driver assistance feature to “Full Self-Driving Supervised,” adding a disclaimer to the title.
In the meantime, several competitors in the autonomous vehicle industry have begun deploying robotaxis and launching commercial services.
Among these competitors are Alphabet’s Waymo in the U.S., as well as Pony.ai and Baidu in China. Amazon-owned Zoox is also preparing to launch a commercial robotaxi service in the U.S.
Tesla’s brand image has been impacted by its close association with CEO Elon Musk. According to CivicScience, customer interest in Tesla vehicles has waned, with favorability dropping significantly among both liberal and conservative consumers.
In July, favorability among Democrats fell to 18%, down from 39% in January, while among Republicans, it dropped to 22% from 36% in the same time frame.
Musk, who also leads SpaceX, X (formerly Twitter), and xAI, has become increasingly outspoken on social media, frequently expressing right-wing political views. While Musk has always shared provocative posts, his recent activity has become more polarized and politically charged.
In July, Musk publicly endorsed former President Donald Trump and has often posted about controversial issues such as illegal immigration, election fraud, crime, and violence.
Before acquiring Twitter, Musk’s social media activity focused more on Tesla and SpaceX, according to an analysis by The Washington Post.
One of Musk’s recent posts falsely claimed that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating people’s pets—a claim that was debunked by the Springfield Police Division and Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, among others.
