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Even though the UK stock market has done well so far this year, it doesn’t mean every UK stock has. Some companies have really struggled in 2024 and the damage might not be done yet. I need to be careful not to get drawn into some ideas that at first might appear to be good value purchases. Here are two that are on my list to stay well away from.
Lacking a unique angle
The first is CAB Payments (LSE:CABP). The stock is down 45% over the past year, after a large crash hit the share price almost a year back.
Late last year, the stock fell over 70% in a day after the business issued a warning on financials. The global payments provider revised revenue expectations lower, flagging up that “market conditions are compressing margins and reducing trading volume”.
If we fast forward to the H1 results that came out last month, the situation doesn’t seem to have improved much. Adjusted earnings came in at £18.7m, lower than the £40m from the same period in 2023. The company noted “lower revenue and higher operating expenses”.
I just don’t see how the payments firm is really unique in what it offers. Granted, it might be able to carve out a niche in facilitating payments in emerging markets. This could help the business to grow in the future. But in my view there are plenty of hurdles it needs to get over before I’d consider investing.
Falling production levels
Another company I’m concerned about is Ferrexpo (LSE:FXPO). The stock has fallen by 41% over the last year and is down 85% over the past three.
This is a sad case, as the Ukraine-based iron ore pellet producer has seen production levels fall through the floor since the invasion by Russia. In the latest quarterly report, it noted how only one to two pelletising lines out of four were operational during the period. Further, it has almost 700 employees currently serving in the military, again putting pressure on production capacity.
I am hopeful that the war will come to a peaceful end at some point. However, I don’t see any imminent signs of this. Therefore, I anticipate that Ferrexpo will continue to struggle, with production and revenue likely falling further in the coming year.
It also hasn’t been helped by the price decrease of iron ore. At the start of this year it was trading at $133 per ton, but now it’s at $105. This means that whatever is produced by Ferrexpo ultimately is being sold for a lower price than it could previously get on the open market.
I could be wrong here and if we get a surprise peace deal then Ferrexpo shares could rally sharply on the good news. Operating levels could jump materially in a very short period of time, helping to lift revenue. Yet I’m happy to sit this one out.
