The “You’re the Twins’ GM!” series asks our writers to put themselves in the position of a Twins baseball exec, and come up with a realistic plan for the offseason. Here’s what Lou came up with. We invite you to write a blog and share your vision for the offseason!
Overall Approach
This is going to be a pivotal season for the Twins as they try to keep their window of contention open. Despite the epic second-half collapse, the core of this team still has substantial upside, and now is the time to double down on them, especially without the seamless ability to add more star power on the free agent market. If things go south again in 2025, they’ll likely be dismantled anyway.
My plan calls for the team to keep their offensive nucleus that includes Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee, as well as their promising top three starting pitchers in Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. It will also rely on young pitchers such as Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews and others to help carry the load for large portions of the season.
Some key differences include the dismissal of all of the team’s free agents, as well as a few trades to create some much-needed wiggle room.
Non-Tenders and Extensions
I would decide to let veteran relievers Michael Tonkin and Justin Topa walk rather than pay them their modest raises in arbitration. It’s another bust from the Jorge Polanco-to-Seattle trade from last year, but Topa should be seen as one of the fungible relievers who can be found on the open market at various points throughout the season.
One of the most underrated aspects of the current front office was their ability to sign young, core hitters to long-term deals that locked in their arbitration prices and ate a free agent year or two. We saw this with Polanco, Max Kepler and Miguel Sano. The first two went rather swimmingly for the Twins and probably saved them some money, and while Sano didn’t live up to expectations, his deal wasn’t really a hindrance to the club at any point and he had the prospect pedigree to suggest he could’ve reasonably had an even bigger breakout.
I want to see the Twins do that again, and I want them to bury any sort of hatchet they have with Lewis. I lock the former first overall pick into a five-year deal that pays him $6 million this year, $10 million in 2025 and $17 million in each of the next three seasons, with a $23 million player option for 2029. That’s $67 million guaranteed to a player that has battled health issues every year since 2020, but has shown tremendous upside. If he opts into his age-30 season at the tail end, the deal will be six-years and $90 million, and still allows him to explore another big payday as a free agent in 2030.
Trades
The first move I would make is to shop catcher Christian Vázquez and as much of the $10 million that is owed to him for 2025. I find a taker in his former ballclub, the Boston Red Sox, who still value him as an asset even if not for his entire salary. They agree to take on half of the contract, freeing roughly $5 million for the Twins to use elsewhere, and the return is simply a player to be named later or cash considerations.
I would then trade Willi Castro to the New York Yankees for lefty reliever Tim Mayza and $2 million in cash. At just $2 million for his final year of club control, he then becomes the de facto replacement for Caleb Thielbar in a bullpen that is sorely lacking in left-handed talent.
Next, I would flip Chris Paddack to a big market club that has the ability to gamble on his production on top of his $7.5 million contract. The big-pocketed Mets take the bait, agreeing to pay the entire salary, but they require a prospect kicker or two in return. The Twins include third base prospect Rubel Cespedes and relief prospect Cody Laweryson.
I would also make a minor swap with the Chicago White Sox, acquiring relief pitcher Gus Varland for 21-year-old starting pitcher Jose Olivares. I’m picturing the two Varland boys holding down spots in the Twins’ bullpen for the next few years, maybe giving each other a boost as if they were a bonded pair in Backyard Baseball. And if it doesn’t work out, the elder Varland still has two option years remaining and would be low-cost to acquire.
Free Agents
Even after the trades, the Twins would still have just a little wiggle room to add if they want to remain at or near their $135 million payroll from last year. The good news is that there aren’t many holes to fill. One glaring need, however, remains at first base.
So I would try to sign switch-hitting slugger Josh Bell, who should be available on a modest one or two-year deal after hitting a combined .248/.322/.412 (.734 OPS, 102 wRC+) over the last two seasons. While those numbers certainly seem underwhelming for a now 32-year-old, it puts him firmly in the Twins’ wheelhouse price-wise and still provides considerable upside. In the second half of last season, Bell rediscovered his power stroke, with an .885 OPS and 145 wRC+. He would be a reasonable, lower-cost replacement for Carlos Santana, and he’d pair extremely well with Jose Miranda and Edouard Julien, who will likely be part of that rotation between first base and designated hitter. Let’s give Bell a two-year deal with a $7 million average annual value.
I would then try to sign veteran backstop Jacob Stallings to a one-year deal for $2 million. He provides at least adequate offense for a backup catcher, but his framing and overall defense are a step down from Vázquez. But at just one-fifth of the cost, he could be a useful complement to Ryan Jeffers.
The last free agent I would make might come off as controversial for a team with limited resources and a win-now mentality, but I would try to reel in starting pitcher Shane Bieber to a back loaded multi year deal. He’s going to be out of commission until the middle of the season after undergoing elbow surgery last summer, but Falvey is as familiar with the former Cy Young winner as just about anyone, since he was a major proponent in the Guardians’ decision to draft the righty back in 2016. Would Bieber be amenable to a modest $4 million salary with a major jump in 2026? Maybe a $17 million salary in year two, with the option to opt out after the 2025 season? This would give him a solid payday should his recovery not go as planned, and it would give him the option to re-enter the free agent market next year if he does return to form.
We saw that type of contract work really well when the Twins brought in Michael Pineda. Could it work again?
Conclusion
After making these moves, the team would sit at a total salary of roughly $135.4 million, which is right in line with where they sat in 2024 and where they anticipate being in 2025. They lose their three veterans in the salary dump, give up a few down-list prospects, extend Lewis and add a few veterans, one of which could make an instant impact, with the other being a high-upside gamble.
Their season-long success likely relies on better health from their core hitters (which is no sure thing), but their additions could help fill the void as secondary contributors, with the potential to be game-changers in the second half.
Most importantly, this roster looks the part of a contender on-paper, which will be pivotal as they try to regain trust and goodwill with the fan base, as well as interest from a potential buyer.
What do you think? Is this yet another pipe dream from the twisted mind of Sweet Lou? Do you think this would be a contending roster? Which of these moves do you like, and which do you hate? Let us know in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet.
