Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers So we wouldn’t blame long term Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (NYSE:AHH) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 45% over a half decade. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 9.0% in thirty days.
Now let’s have a look at the company’s fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
See our latest analysis for Armada Hoffler Properties
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
In the last half decade Armada Hoffler Properties saw its share price fall as its EPS declined below zero. At present it’s hard to make valid comparisons between EPS and the share price. However, we can say we’d expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It’s probably worth noting we’ve seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Armada Hoffler Properties’ earnings, revenue and cash flow.
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Armada Hoffler Properties’ TSR for the last 5 years was -26%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
While the broader market gained around 26% in the last year, Armada Hoffler Properties shareholders lost 12% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 5% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should “buy when there is blood on the streets”, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example – Armada Hoffler Properties has 4 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.
