Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. We regret to report that long term Magic Software Enterprises Ltd. (NASDAQ:MGIC) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 42% in three years, versus a market return of about 27%.
With that in mind, it’s worth seeing if the company’s underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
See our latest analysis for Magic Software Enterprises
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Although the share price is down over three years, Magic Software Enterprises actually managed to grow EPS by 7.4% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
Since the change in EPS doesn’t seem to correlate with the change in share price, it’s worth taking a look at other metrics.
Revenue is actually up 4.0% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn’t seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Magic Software Enterprises more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.
The company’s revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Magic Software Enterprises, it has a TSR of -34% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
