The producer price index for final demand undercut expectations in December as core prices didn’t budge on the month. S&P 500 futures rose in early Tuesday stock market action as the data settled nerves ahead of tomorrow’s big CPI inflation release, despite new reporting about forthcoming Trump tariffs.
The PPI and CPI provide most of the inputs that go into the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation measure, the core PCE price index.
Note to readers: This story is being updated with more data and analysis. Please check back.
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PPI Inflation Hits And Misses
The overall PPI rose 0.2% on the month vs. 0.3% estimates, according to the Econoday consensus forecast. Over the past 12 months, PPI inflation has run 3.3%, in line with 3.3% estimates and up from (a revised) 3% in November.
Core PPI inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, ran at 0.0% on the month and 3.5% from a year ago. Wall Street expected readings of 0.2% and 3.4%. The higher 12-month inflation reading reflected upward revisions to past data.
What The Report Means For The Fed
The PPI’s broad measure of health care services inflation, which feeds into the core PCE price index, was unchanged on the month and rose 2.9% from a year ago. Health care services prices are the biggest component of the Fed’s primary inflation measure. By contrast, shelter prices are easily the biggest component of the core CPI.
Airline passenger services, a measure of airfares, and portfolio management services also feed into the core PCE price index.
CPI Inflation Preview
There was a lot of uncertainty heading into Wednesday’s consumer price index data for December. However, today’s PPI data should ease concerns.
Economists expect the overall CPI to rise 0.3%, with a 0.2% in core prices. On a 12-month basis, CPI inflation is expected to tick up to 2.9% overall, as core inflation holds at 3.3%.
S&P 500
S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% early Tuesday, after shaking off early losses on Monday to finish up 0.2%.
The S&P 500 finished 4.2% off its Dec. 6 record closing high.
After the PPI data, the 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.78%.
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