In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it’s worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. Unfortunately, that’s been the case for longer term Simmons First National Corporation (NASDAQ:SFNC) shareholders, since the share price is down 22% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 38%. On the other hand the share price has bounced 8.4% over the last week.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they’re still in the red over the last three years, so let’s see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
View our latest analysis for Simmons First National
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Simmons First National saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 26% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 8% compound annual share price fall. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment — or it may have previously priced some of the drop in.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We’re pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Simmons First National’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Simmons First National’s TSR for the last 3 years was -12%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
Simmons First National provided a TSR of 25% over the year (including dividends). That’s fairly close to the broader market return. Most would be happy with a gain, and it helps that the year’s return is actually better than the average return over five years, which was 1.7%. Even if the share price growth slows down from here, there’s a good chance that this is business worth watching in the long term. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Simmons First National is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about…
