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We’re one month into the year and I’d never have guessed which FTSE 100 stock would be leading the charge in 2025.
It’s not last year’s double-your-money winners British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines or growth monster Rolls-Royce, but African telecoms operator Airtel Africa (LSE: AAF).
The shares surged 27.1% in January. It swept to the top of the 2025 leaderboard after posting a strong set of results on 30 January, while its second $100m share buyback added fuel to the rally.
Someone who had put £10,000 into Airtel Africa shares at the start of the year would now have £12,710. That’s an impressive return in just a few weeks, but enough of that nonsense. At The Motley Fool we see investing as a long-term process, not a get-rich-quick game.
So can the £5bn company now build on its stellar results, or will profit-takers whittle the growth away in the weeks ahead.
What’s driving the Airtel Africa share price surge?
Airtel Africa has been on my radar for a while, and Thursday’s (30 January) fab results reminded me of its huge potential. The company operates across 14 fast-growing African markets, where demand for telecoms and mobile money services continues to grow.
In the nine months to 31 December, the group’s total customer base rose 7.9% to 163.1m, while data customer numbers surged 13.8%.
Revenue jumped 20.4% in constant currency terms, with mobile money revenue alone growing 29.6%. Profit after tax skyrocketed from just $2m to $248m year on year.
CEO Sunil Taldar was bullish about Airtel’s prospects, highlighting the company’s “focus on speed and quality execution”.
Not all the signals are positive. Currency devaluations remain an issue. Notably the devaluation of the Nigerian naira, which hit the group’s revenues once converted back into sterling terms. This remains an issue, with Thursday’s results showing revenue declined by 5.8%, largely thanks to the embattled naira. They have been signs of African currency stabilisation lately.
Can the FTSE 100 group continue to fly?
The shares are up 27.1% this year and 97% over five years, albeit with plenty of volatility in between. So is this the right time to buy?
It’s always tricky investing after a sudden surge, as profit-taking can lead to pullbacks. Airtel Africa still looks attractively valued on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 10.6 for the financial year starting in April 2025. However, that’s based on sales rising almost 200% over the year ahead. Any earnings miss will be punished.
The company also offers a decent trailing dividend yield of 3.3%, adding an income element to its appeal. And its ongoing expansion and rising smartphone adoption in Africa does create a compelling long-term growth story.
But risks remain. Currency fluctuations could continue to hit reported earnings, but net debt is my biggest worry. This jumped from $3.28bn to $5.27bn year on year. That must be set against positives such as its growing customer base, improving margins and share buybacks.
Given recent performance and strategic investments, I’m keeping a closer eye on this rising star. But I won’t buy it in February. Shares so often retreat after a dramatic leap, and this one still has risks. It’s not the right call for me today.
