The global energy sector is in transition, with major oil companies under pressure to cut emissions while staying profitable. Shell, Chevron, and ExxonMobil—three of the world’s biggest energy giants—are taking different paths to navigate this shift.
Their latest earnings reveal how each company is balancing investments in oil, gas, and low-carbon initiatives. While some struggle with declining profits, others are outperforming expectations.
Beyond financials, their sustainability goals and net-zero targets set them apart. But are these commitments keeping pace with financial performance? Let’s dive into their latest financial results and see which energy giant leads the charge toward a greener future.
Who’s Winning the Oil Game? A Financial Face-Off
Shell: Struggling Profits, Big Promises
Shell reported Q4 2024 earnings of $1.20 per ADS (American Depository Share), missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.78 and significantly lower than $2.22 per ADS in Q4 2023. The company’s revenue dropped to $66.8 billion from $80.1 billion, falling short of expectations by 16.6%. The decline was driven by weaker realized prices, reduced trading margins, and lower LNG sales.
Shell repurchased $3.6 billion in shares and increased its dividend by 5%, with plans for another $3.5 billion in repurchases in Q1 2025. Here is the oil giant’s income per segment:
- Upstream: Profit fell to $1.7 billion from $3.1 billion, missing expectations due to lower oil and gas prices. Liquids prices fell 11%, while natural gas declined 7%.
- Chemicals & Products: Reported a $229 million loss, reversing a $29 million profit from the previous year, due to lower margins and unfavorable tax movements.
- Integrated Gas: Adjusted income dropped to $2.2 billion from $4 billion, missing the expected $2.8 billion due to a 14.3% drop in LNG sales.
- Marketing: Income rose to $839 million from $794 million, but missed expectations of $885 million.
- Renewables & Energy Solutions: Recorded a $311 million loss, down from a $173 million profit a year earlier, due to rising costs and adverse tax effects.
Chevron: A Mixed Bag of Losses and Growth
Chevron’s Q4 earnings fell below Wall Street expectations, reporting adjusted EPS of $2.06 versus the estimated $2.11. This led to a 4% drop in its stock price. The company’s downstream segment posted a $248 million loss, compared to a $1.15 billion profit in Q4 2023. This is because refining margins weakened amid declining fuel demand in the U.S. and China.
- Oil & Gas Production: Profits rose to $4.3 billion from $1.59 billion a year ago, despite a flat overall output of 3.35 million boepd (Barrels of oil equivalent per day). Permian Basin production grew 14% to a record 992,000 boepd.
- Refining: Weak jet fuel demand contributed to the company’s first refining loss since 2020.
Chevron expects global output to grow 6-8% in 2025 and 3-6% in 2026. The company raised its quarterly dividend by 5% and reaffirmed share buyback plans of $10-$20 billion annually.
Exxon: Defying Expectations Amid Industry Headwinds
Exxon announced Q4 2024 earnings of $7.6 billion, or $1.72 per share, exceeding analyst estimates of $1.56. Despite lower oil prices, higher production helped offset the weaker refining margins of this big oil company.
- Oil & Gas Production: Adjusted earnings rose to $6.28 billion from $4.15 billion a year earlier. Production increased to 4.6 million boepd, driven by low production costs in the Permian Basin and Guyana projects.
- Refining: Earnings from gasoline and diesel production dropped sharply to $323 million from $3.2 billion a year earlier due to increased refinery capacity in Asia.
Exxon reported $33.7 billion in earnings for 2024, down from $38.57 billion in 2023, but highlighted strong operational efficiency and profitability.
The three energy giants all faced challenges in Q4 2024, with weaker refining margins and lower oil prices impacting profitability. However, Exxon outperformed expectations, while Chevron and Shell struggled with underwhelming results. All three companies remain focused on capital discipline, shareholder returns, and production efficiency moving forward.
The Green Pivot: Are Big Oil’s Net Zero Pledges Enough?
Shell, Chevron, and ExxonMobil are charting distinct paths toward sustainability as the energy landscape evolves. Their climate commitments, emissions targets, and investment in renewables illustrate their vision for a lower-carbon future.
Each of the energy giants has its own roadmap to net-zero emissions, with varying approaches and strategies. To have a clearer picture of how much carbon pollution each of them emitted in 2023, look at the image below.
While some are making bolder moves in renewables, others remain focused on carbon capture and efficiency improvements. Understanding Shell, Chevron, and ExxonMobil’s strategies provides insight into the future of the oil and gas industry.
Shell’s Carbon Commitment: Big Talk or Real Action?
Shell aims to become a net-zero emissions energy business by 2050 as part of its Powering Progress strategy. This commitment includes eliminating operational emissions and reducing the emissions from the energy products it sells.
The company has set several targets to achieve this goal:
- 50% absolute emissions reduction by 2030 (Scopes 1 and 2) compared to 2016 levels.
- Eliminate routine flaring of natural gas by 2025 to curb carbon emissions.
- Reduce methane emissions intensity below 0.2% and reach near-zero methane emissions by 2030.
- 15-20% reduction in customer emissions from oil products by 2030 (Scope 3, Category 11, 2021 baseline).
Progress Achieved
By the end of 2023, Shell had cut more than 60% of its emissions goal for 2030. The company’s methane emissions intensity was 0.05% for facilities with marketed gas and 0.001% for facilities without marketed gas.
Shell tracks its emissions reductions through Net Carbon Intensity (NCI), which measures emissions per unit of energy sold. Key milestones include:
- 6-8% reduction achieved in 2023 (from 2016 levels)
- 9-12% reduction target for 2024
- 100% reduction goal by 2050
Shell’s strategy for 2030 balances energy security with sustainability. The company plans to reduce emissions by evolving its product mix and shifting towards low-carbon solutions such as biofuels, hydrogen, and renewables.
Shell has also invested heavily in carbon offset initiatives to negate its GHG emissions. However, under CEO Wael Sawan’s leadership, the oil giant is reducing its focus on nature-based projects and is considering engineered carbon removals instead.
Today, 70% of Shell’s cash flow comes from Integrated Gas and Upstream businesses, while 75% of its emissions come from Downstream, Renewables, and Energy Solutions. Additionally, Shell has invested heavily in offshore wind projects, with plans to expand its renewable energy portfolio across multiple continents.
Chevron’s Climate Play: Real Solutions or Greenwashing?
Chevron is investing $8 billion in lower-carbon energy projects from 2021-2028, including renewable fuels, carbon capture, hydrogen, and offsets. An additional $2 billion is allocated to reducing emissions within its operations.
The company is also developing new partnerships with tech firms to enhance energy efficiency and reduce its environmental impact.
Chevron targets net-zero upstream Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2050 but acknowledges that achieving this goal depends on technological advances, regulatory support, and viable carbon capture and offset mechanisms.
2028 Carbon Intensity Targets
Chevron’s plans to lower carbon intensity include:
- 71 g CO₂e/MJ portfolio carbon intensity (Scope 1, 2, and 3)
- 24 kg CO₂e/boe oil carbon intensity (Scope 1 and 2)
- 24 kg CO₂e/boe gas carbon intensity (Scope 1 and 2)
- 36 kg CO₂e/boe refining carbon intensity (Scope 1 and 2)
GHG Reduction Initiatives
Chevron uses the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) to optimize carbon reduction. The company has identified 150+ GHG abatement projects, with over $600 million in investments planned for 2024.
Between 2021-2028, Chevron expects $2 billion in GHG reduction investments, targeting 4 million metric tons (mt) of annual emissions reductions. Here are the company’s other sustainability plans and strategies to achieve its ambitious 2050 net zero goal.
Methane and Renewable Energy Expansion
- Methane emissions goal of 2.0 kg CO₂e/boe by 2028
- Advanced methane detection programs, including satellite monitoring
- Growing renewable fuels capacity to 100 mbd by 2030, including renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel
- Significant CCUS investments, including Bayou Bend (Texas) and Gorgon (Australia)
- Expanding hydrogen production to 150 mtpa by 2030
- Developing advanced geothermal energy projects to enhance clean energy production
SEE MORE: Chevron Reports Lower Q2 Earnings! What About Its Emissions?
ExxonMobil’s Bold Bet on Decarbonization
ExxonMobil has cut 23% of nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and volatile organic compounds emissions since 2016. In 2023, its GHG emissions stood at 111 MMTCO₂e, marking a 2 MMT reduction from the previous year. The company is also exploring new ways to enhance energy efficiency across its global operations.
ExxonMobil aims for a 20% absolute reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, compared to 2016 levels. The company aligns its emissions reductions with the Paris Agreement while emphasizing intensity-based reductions.
Beyond burning down emissions in its own operations, Exxon is also helping other industries decarbonize. Its Low Carbon Solutions business focuses on hard-to-decarbonize sectors like heavy industry, power, and transportation. The oil giant seeks to lead in profitable, large-scale emission reduction solutions, with the following key strategies.
Key Sustainability Actions
- Investing in carbon capture, biofuels, and hydrogen
- Advancing methane management with innovative detection technologies
- Deploying CCUS projects, including the world’s largest CCUS facility at LaBarge, Wyoming
- Developing low-carbon solutions for hard-to-abate industries
- Launching a $17 billion investment plan in lower-carbon solutions through 2027
- Exploring direct air capture (DAC) technologies to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere
READ MORE: ExxonMobil’s First-of-its-Kind Carbon Capture Solution for the U.S. Data Centers
Big Oil’s Race Against Time
Shell, Chevron, and ExxonMobil are taking different approaches to sustainability and emissions reduction. While Shell focuses on reducing absolute emissions and net carbon intensity, Chevron prioritizes carbon intensity reduction and methane management. ExxonMobil, meanwhile, is expanding CCUS and methane detection efforts to lower emissions.
As global climate policies tighten, Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and other energy companies should accelerate their transition strategies to meet net-zero targets.
