New research from BeZero Carbon has found that over 200 million carbon credits could be eligible for the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), but their quality varies widely.
The study projects that between 2024 and 2026, the market value of airline-purchased credits under CORSIA could surpass $2 billion—nearly triple the annual transacted value of the voluntary carbon market (VCM), BeZero said in a statement on Tuesday.
Aviation currently contributes 2.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, a share expected to grow as air travel increases and fossil fuel alternatives remain limited.
To address this, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) requires airlines to reduce or offset emissions through CORSIA.
BeZero’s research suggests that almost 200 million existing carbon credits could be eligible for purchase under the program’s first phase, set to run until 2026. Cookstove credits appear to dominate in availability and scope.
Airlines may need to acquire around 100 million credits to meet compliance requirements. At today’s prices, this demand could drive the market to $2 billion. For context, the VCM’s estimated transacted value was $700 million in 2023.
However, BeZero warns that without proper assessment, airlines risk investing in low-quality credits that fail to deliver their promised carbon reductions.
The research found that eligible credits range from BeZero’s third-highest rating (A) to its lowest (D), with the majority falling into the B-rated category.
Purchasing the cheapest, lowest-rated credits exposes airlines to reputational risks if the projects lack additionality, involve over-crediting, or face permanence risks that could reverse their impact, BeZero warned.
To ensure credibility, third-party risk assessments and independent carbon ratings are crucial in helping airlines make informed decisions and build effective decarbonization strategies.
Sebastien Cross, BeZero’s Chief Innovation Officer and Co-founder, highlighted the significant scale of the CORSIA market, noting its potential to drive climate action and broader social benefits.
“But as our research shows, the performance of carbon credits varies including those eligible for the CORSIA scheme. Independent ratings are essential to enabling airlines to understand and manage this risk,” he stressed.
BeZero evaluates carbon projects on an eight-point scale to assess their ability to remove or avoid carbon emissions.
The company recently secured $32 million in Series C funding to expand its carbon ratings, including for compliance markets like CORSIA.
