A number of major carmakers — including Toyota, Stellantis, Mazda, and Subaru — “pooled” their emissions with EV makers Polestar and Tesla earlier this year, in an effort to comply with tougher European Union carbon emissions rules.
Put differently, the companies are hoping to meet yearly emissions targets by teaming up with EV companies, which have racked up an abundance of carbon credits — since their vehicles don’t produce any carbon emissions like gas guzzlers.
It’s a clever accounting trick that allows makers of internal combustion vehicles to skirt around EU regulations and avoid hefty penalties.
It’s also a mutually beneficial agreement, with EV makers like Tesla making billions on emissions deals. Just last year, the company made a whopping $2.76 billion, representing a 54 percent increase in the income stream year-over-year.
But as Politico reports, that source of revenue could quickly dry up in 2025.
That’s in large part thanks to Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s extremely divisive remarks and actions, including two Hitler salutes during president Donald Trump’s inauguration proceedings. In the wake of those outbursts, Tesla sales in Europe have been a complete disaster so far this year.
Those weak sales stand to directly undermine the ongoing plan to “pool” carbon credits. The company is already far behind its 2025 emissions targets, according to an analysis from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ITCC). That’s despite a healthy 34 percent increase in EV sales overall, suggesting the problem is Tesla, not waning demand.
“If things go bad for Tesla and they don’t sell enough cars this year, they might not have enough credits for what they promised Stellantis and the others,” ITCC managing director Peter Mock told Politico. “Tesla is under pressure.”
It’s a looming crisis, with sales data suggesting Tesla’s popularity is taking a prolonged nosedive. Sales are down across Europe, with France seeing a 26 percent drop in February compared to the same period last year.
Tesla dealerships have also seen a surge in demonstrations and vandalism worldwide, highlighting growing anti-Musk sentiment.
Beyond Musk’s behavior, the carmaker has also struggled to keep up with a surge in competition in the space, particularly from China.
And adding to all that, Tesla’s lineup is also looking notably out-of-date.
“The much bigger impact on Tesla is the fact that the models are outdated,” German used car platform Cardino cofounder Lukasz Pajak told Politico. “And then you have the pricing element where new players on the market are much more affordable.”
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