Stock futures were mounting a forceful retreat early Monday after President Donald Trump said he hates “to predict things” when asked if a recession was coming.
That’s not a strong vote of confidence from someone who has had few reservations about making stock-market predictions in the past. The worry is that uncertainty about his tariffs, the vast cuts in government jobs, and capricious behavior more generally will hurt consumer and business confidence and lead to a downturn.
The administration’s comments “suggest that their pain level is higher than most would have believed a few weeks ago,” said Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid.
To be fair, the economy still seems to be in good shape for now. The nonfarm payrolls report on Friday showed an uptick in unemployment, but it was hardly a disaster. The inflation data coming on Wednesday will give more color on how much the Federal Reserve may be able to cut interest rates this year.
Earnings from Dick’s Sporting Goods, Kohl’s, and Dollar General will take the pulse of how consumers are doing, as will Friday’s University of Michigan consumer on Friday. Congress will also work to iron out a budget deal before a scheduled shutdown on March 15.
Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 191 points, or 0.5%. Contracts tied to the S&P 500 fell 0.6%, and those for the technology-heavy Nasdaq 0.6%. All three indexes are now lower since the start of the year.
Bond yields were slightly lower. The 10-year Treasury was at 4.269%, compared with readings above 4.3% Friday. The two-year note yield was at 3.972%.
