| 1. |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
| 1.1. |
Why carbon dioxide removal (CDR)? |
| 1.2. |
The CDR technologies covered in this report (1/2) |
| 1.3. |
The CDR technologies covered in this report (2/2) |
| 1.4. |
Scale and technology readiness level of carbon dioxide removal methods |
| 1.5. |
The CDR business model and its challenges: Carbon credits |
| 1.6. |
The carbon removal supply chain: Carbon credit market players |
| 1.7. |
Shifting buyer preferences for durable CDR in carbon credit markets |
| 1.8. |
Overall picture: Voluntary carbon credit markets in 2024 |
| 1.9. |
How expensive were durable carbon removals in 2024? |
| 1.10. |
DACCS: Summary |
| 1.11. |
Current status of DACCS |
| 1.12. |
The role of tax credits in supporting DACCS: 45Q and ITC |
| 1.13. |
What are the major challenges for scaling up direct air capture? |
| 1.14. |
DAC technology landscape: Companies |
| 1.15. |
Which DAC technologies will be the most successful? |
| 1.16. |
How will DAC technologies develop? |
| 1.17. |
Solid sorbents – semi-continuous operation can lower energy intensity |
| 1.18. |
Electrochemical DAC: Key takeaways |
| 1.19. |
The potential for BiCRS goes beyond BECCS: Benchmarking |
| 1.20. |
Most existing BECCS projects are in ethanol production |
| 1.21. |
Solvent capture technologies dominate the BECCS space |
| 1.22. |
Government support for BECCS is accelerating |
| 1.23. |
BECCS: Key takeaways |
| 1.24. |
The state of the global biochar market |
| 1.25. |
Biochar CDR is scaling up |
| 1.26. |
Biochar: Key takeaways |
| 1.27. |
BiCRS Value Chain |
| 1.28. |
Afforestation and reforestation: Key takeaways |
| 1.29. |
Key takeaways: Soil carbon sequestration |
| 1.30. |
Key takeaways: Mineralization CDR |
| 1.31. |
Key players in ocean-based CDR |
| 1.32. |
Key takeaways: Ocean-based CDR |
| 1.33. |
Carbon dioxide removal capacity forecast by technology (million metric tons of CO2 per year), 2025-2035 |
| 1.34. |
Carbon dioxide removal annual carbon credit revenue forecast by technology (billion US$), 2025-2035 |
| 1.35. |
Carbon dioxide removal market forecast, 2025-2035: Discussion |
| 1.36. |
The evolution of the durable CDR market |
| 1.37. |
Access More With an IDTechEx Subscription |
| 2. |
INTRODUCTION |
| 2.1. |
Introduction and general analysis |
| 2.1.1. |
What is carbon dioxide removal (CDR)? |
| 2.1.2. |
Description of the main CDR methods |
| 2.1.3. |
Why carbon dioxide removal (CDR)? |
| 2.1.4. |
What is the difference between CDR and CCUS? |
| 2.1.5. |
High-quality carbon removals: Durability, permanence, additionality |
| 2.1.6. |
Scale and technology readiness level of carbon dioxide removal methods |
| 2.1.7. |
Carbon dioxide removal technology benchmarking |
| 2.1.8. |
Status and potential of CDR technologies |
| 2.1.9. |
Monitoring, reporting, and verification of CDR |
| 2.1.10. |
CDR: Deferring the problem? |
| 2.1.11. |
What is needed to further develop the CDR sector? |
| 2.1.12. |
CDR market traction in 2024 |
| 2.1.13. |
The Xprize Carbon Removal |
| 2.1.14. |
Regional factors could determine the best CDR strategy |
| 2.2. |
Carbon credit markets |
| 2.2.1. |
Global climate action – the Paris Agreement |
| 2.2.2. |
Carbon pricing and carbon markets |
| 2.2.3. |
Compliance carbon pricing mechanisms across the globe |
| 2.2.4. |
What is the price of CO2 in global carbon pricing mechanisms? |
| 2.2.5. |
What is a carbon credit? |
| 2.2.6. |
How are carbon credits certified? |
| 2.2.7. |
The role of carbon registries in the credit market |
| 2.2.8. |
Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) of Carbon Credits |
| 2.2.9. |
How are voluntary carbon credits purchased? |
| 2.2.10. |
The carbon removal carbon credit market players |
| 2.2.11. |
Interaction between compliance markets and voluntary markets (geographical) |
| 2.2.12. |
Interaction between compliance markets and voluntary markets (sectoral) |
| 2.2.13. |
Governmental carbon crediting mechanisms |
| 2.2.14. |
Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement: Global, unified carbon credit market |
| 2.2.15. |
Quality of carbon credits |
| 2.2.16. |
Carbon removal vs carbon avoidance/reduction credits |
| 2.2.17. |
Carbon dioxide removal vs emissions reductions |
| 2.2.18. |
Carbon dioxide removal has a very limited role in $100 billion compliance markets |
| 2.2.19. |
The state of CDR in the voluntary carbon market |
| 2.2.20. |
Shifting buyer preferences for durable CDR in carbon credit markets |
| 2.2.21. |
Overall picture: Voluntary carbon credit markets in 2024 |
| 2.2.22. |
Advanced market commitment in durable CDR |
| 2.2.23. |
Businesses should be investing in carbon dioxide removal now |
| 2.2.24. |
Biggest durable carbon removal buyers |
| 2.2.25. |
Pre-purchases still dominate the durable CDR space |
| 2.2.26. |
Prices of CDR credits |
| 2.2.27. |
How expensive were durable carbon removals in 2024? |
| 2.2.28. |
Current carbon credit prices by company and technology |
| 2.2.29. |
Carbon market sizes |
| 2.2.30. |
Are there enough buyers for durable CDR technologies? |
| 2.2.31. |
CDR technologies: key takeaways |
| 3. |
DIRECT AIR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE (DACCS) |
| 3.1. |
Introduction to direct air capture (DAC) |
| 3.1.1. |
What is direct air capture (DAC)? |
| 3.1.2. |
Why DACCS as a CDR solution? |
| 3.1.3. |
Current status of DACCS |
| 3.1.4. |
DACCS project pipeline: Locations and technologies |
| 3.1.5. |
Momentum: Policy support for DAC by region |
| 3.1.6. |
The role of tax credits in supporting DACCS: 45Q and ITC |
| 3.1.7. |
The US has plans to establish 20 large-scale regional DAC Hubs |
| 3.1.8. |
Momentum: Private investment in DAC |
| 3.1.9. |
Where did money for DAC come from in 2024? |
| 3.1.10. |
DAC land requirement is an advantage |
| 3.1.11. |
DAC vs point-source carbon capture |
| 3.1.12. |
Power requirements for DAC |
| 3.1.13. |
Nameplate capacity vs actual net removal |
| 3.1.14. |
Difficulties sourcing clean energy |
| 3.1.15. |
Operational flexibility – powering DAC with intermittent renewables |
| 3.1.16. |
What are the major challenges for scaling up direct air capture? |
| 3.2. |
Leading DAC technologies |
| 3.2.1. |
CO2 capture/separation mechanisms in DAC |
| 3.2.2. |
Direct air capture technologies |
| 3.2.3. |
Regeneration methods for solid and liquid DAC |
| 3.2.4. |
Comparing regeneration methods for solid and liquid DAC |
| 3.2.5. |
Leading DAC companies |
| 3.2.6. |
Direct air capture space: Technology and location breakdown |
| 3.2.7. |
Solid sorbents for DAC |
| 3.2.8. |
Climeworks |
| 3.2.9. |
Process flow diagram of S-DAC: Climeworks |
| 3.2.10. |
Solid sorbents – semi-continuous operation can lower energy intensity |
| 3.2.11. |
Heirloom |
| 3.2.12. |
Process flow diagram of CaO looping: Heirloom |
| 3.2.13. |
Liquid solvents for DAC |
| 3.2.14. |
Liquid solvent-based DAC: Carbon Engineering |
| 3.2.15. |
Carbon Engineering |
| 3.2.16. |
Stratos: Bringing DAC to the half megatonne scale |
| 3.2.17. |
Process flow diagram of L-DAC: Carbon Engineering |
| 3.2.18. |
DAC process: Climeworks and Carbon Engineering |
| 3.2.19. |
Electricity and heat sources: Climeworks and Carbon Engineering |
| 3.2.20. |
Requirements to capture 1 Mt of CO2 per year: Climeworks and Carbon Engineering |
| 3.2.21. |
DAC technology landscape: Companies |
| 3.2.22. |
Which DAC technologies will be the most successful? |
| 3.2.23. |
How will DAC technologies develop? |
| 3.2.24. |
DACCS carbon credit sales by company |
| 3.3. |
Electroswing/electrochemical DAC technologies |
| 3.3.1. |
Electroswing/electrochemical DAC |
| 3.3.2. |
Types of electrochemical DAC (1/2) |
| 3.3.3. |
Types of electrochemical DAC (2/2) |
| 3.3.4. |
Desired characteristics of electrochemical cell components |
| 3.3.5. |
Electrochemical DAC company landscape |
| 3.3.6. |
Benchmarking electrochemical DAC methods |
| 3.3.7. |
Technical challenges in electrochemical DAC |
| 3.3.8. |
Electrochemical DAC: Flexibility for low-cost intermittent renewable power |
| 3.3.9. |
Electrochemical DAC costs depend strongly on electricity prices |
| 3.3.10. |
Electrochemical DAC: Key takeaways |
| 3.4. |
Novel DAC technologies |
| 3.4.1. |
Moisture-swing direct air capture (humidity swing) |
| 3.4.2. |
Ion exchange resins for moisture swing DAC |
| 3.4.3. |
Cryogenic direct air capture companies |
| 3.4.4. |
Membrane direct air capture |
| 3.4.5. |
Reactive direct air capture – combined capture and conversion |
| 3.5. |
Equipment for DAC – design and manufacturing |
| 3.5.1. |
Manufacturing supply chains for DAC |
| 3.5.2. |
Air contactors: Existing designs |
| 3.5.3. |
Commercial air contactor manufacturing facility |
| 3.5.4. |
Lessons learned from Carbon Engineering: Adapt existing industrial equipment to establish supply chain |
| 3.5.5. |
Lessons learned from Global Thermostat: Partnerships essential for technology development |
| 3.5.6. |
Passive air contacting |
| 3.5.7. |
Integration DAC into existing industrial processes: Cooling towers, HVAC, and waste heat |
| 3.6. |
DAC economics |
| 3.6.1. |
The economics of DAC |
| 3.6.2. |
The CAPEX of DAC: Sub-system contribution |
| 3.6.3. |
The OPEX of DAC |
| 3.6.4. |
Overall capture cost of DAC (1/2) |
| 3.6.5. |
Overall capture cost of DAC (2/2) |
| 3.6.6. |
Component specific capture cost contributions for DACCS |
| 3.6.7. |
Financing DAC |
| 3.6.8. |
Business models for DAC |
| 3.6.9. |
Direct air capture carbon credit selling prices |
| 3.7. |
CO2 storage |
| 3.7.1. |
DAC must be coupled with permanent storage for carbon dioxide removals |
| 3.7.2. |
Storing supercritical CO₂ underground |
| 3.7.3. |
Mechanisms of subsurface CO₂ trapping |
| 3.7.4. |
CO2 leakage is a small risk |
| 3.7.5. |
Storage type for geologic CO2 storage: Saline aquifers |
| 3.7.6. |
Storage type for geologic CO2 storage: Depleted oil and gas fields |
| 3.7.7. |
Unconventional storage resources: Basalts and ultra-mafic rocks |
| 3.7.8. |
Estimates of global CO₂ storage space |
| 3.7.9. |
CO2 storage potential by country |
| 3.7.10. |
Permitting and authorization of CO2 storage |
| 3.7.11. |
Class VI permits are delaying DACCS development in US |
| 3.7.12. |
Examples of storage providers for DAC |
| 3.7.13. |
Key takeaways: CO2 storage |
| 3.8. |
DAC Challenges |
| 3.8.1. |
Challenges associated with DAC technology |
| 3.8.2. |
Oil and gas sector involvement in DAC |
| 3.8.3. |
DACCS co-location with geothermal energy |
| 3.8.4. |
What can DAC learn from the wind and solar industries’ scale-up? |
| 3.8.5. |
What is needed for DAC to achieve the gigatonne capacity by 2050? |
| 3.8.6. |
DACCS SWOT analysis |
| 3.8.7. |
DACCS: Summary |
| 4. |
BIOMASS WITH CARBON REMOVAL AND STORAGE (BICRS) |
| 4.1. |
Introduction |
| 4.1.1. |
Biomass with carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) |
| 4.1.2. |
BiCRS possible feedstocks |
| 4.1.3. |
What type of biomass is currently used for CDR? |
| 4.1.4. |
The potential for BiCRS goes beyond BECCS: Benchmarking |
| 4.1.5. |
BiCRS conversion pathways |
| 4.2. |
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) |
| 4.2.1. |
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) |
| 4.2.2. |
Point source capture technologies |
| 4.2.3. |
Most existing BECCS projects are in ethanol production |
| 4.2.4. |
Solvent capture technologies dominate the BECCS space |
| 4.2.5. |
Amine-solvent technologies dominate BECCS |
| 4.2.6. |
Government support for BECCS is accelerating |
| 4.2.7. |
BECCS business model – Ørsted example |
| 4.2.8. |
BECCS dominates the sales of durable, engineered CDR credits |
| 4.2.9. |
Biogenic CO2 must be coupled with permanent storage for carbon dioxide removals |
| 4.2.10. |
BECCS projects – trends and discussion |
| 4.2.11. |
UK BECCS case studies |
| 4.2.12. |
Ethanol production dominates the BECCS project pipeline |
| 4.2.13. |
Network connecting bioethanol plants for BECCS |
| 4.2.14. |
Opportunities in BECCS: Heat generation |
| 4.2.15. |
Opportunities in BECCS: Waste-to-energy |
| 4.2.16. |
The challenges of BECCS |
| 4.2.17. |
The energy and carbon efficiency of BECCS |
| 4.2.18. |
Importance of regrowth rates on carbon accounting for biogenic emissions |
| 4.2.19. |
Is BECCS sustainable? |
| 4.2.20. |
BECCS: Key takeaways |
| 4.3. |
Biochar |
| 4.3.1. |
What is biochar? |
| 4.3.2. |
How is biochar produced? (1/2) |
| 4.3.3. |
How is biochar produced? (2/2) |
| 4.3.4. |
Biochar feedstocks |
| 4.3.5. |
Permanence of biochar carbon removal |
| 4.3.6. |
Biochar applications |
| 4.3.7. |
Economic considerations in biochar production (1) |
| 4.3.8. |
Economic considerations in biochar production (2) |
| 4.3.9. |
Biochar: Market and business model |
| 4.3.10. |
The state of the global biochar market |
| 4.3.11. |
Artisanal vs industrial biochar |
| 4.3.12. |
Biochar carbon credit selling price |
| 4.3.13. |
Key players in biochar CDR by scale |
| 4.3.14. |
Biochar business model: Equipment suppliers and project developers |
| 4.3.15. |
Biochar business model: Discussion |
| 4.3.16. |
Biochar legislation and certification |
| 4.3.17. |
Additionality of biochar carbon removal |
| 4.3.18. |
Biochar: Key takeaways |
| 4.4. |
Other BiCRS (bio-oil and biomass burial) |
| 4.4.1. |
Bio-oil geological storage for CDR |
| 4.4.2. |
Biomass burial for CO2 removal |
| 4.4.3. |
Capture costs below $100/tonne of CO2 drive popularity of biomass burial |
| 4.4.4. |
Biomass burial commercial landscape |
| 4.4.5. |
Best use of biomass – biochar, BECCS, or burial? |
| 4.4.6. |
BiCRS Value Chain |
| 5. |
AFFORESTATION/REFORESTATION |
| 5.1. |
What are nature-based CDR approaches? |
| 5.2. |
Why land-based carbon dioxide removal? |
| 5.3. |
The CDR potential of afforestation and reforestation |
| 5.4. |
The case for and against A/R for climate mitigation |
| 5.5. |
Technologies in A/R: Remote sensing |
| 5.6. |
Company landscape: Robotics in afforestation/reforestation |
| 5.7. |
Afforestation/reforestation carbon credit market status in 2024 |
| 5.8. |
Afforestation/reforestation is already part of many government net-zero targets |
| 5.9. |
“Just plant more trees!” – sustainability and greenwashing considerations |
| 5.10. |
Comparing A/R and BECCS solutions |
| 5.11. |
Afforestation and reforestation: Key takeaways |
| 6. |
SOIL CARBON SEQUESTRATION |
| 6.1. |
What is soil carbon sequestration (SCS)? |
| 6.2. |
The soil carbon sequestration potential is vast |
| 6.3. |
Agricultural management practices to improve soil carbon sequestration |
| 6.4. |
Companies using microbial inoculation for soil carbon sequestration |
| 6.5. |
Approaches to MRV for soil carbon sequestration |
| 6.6. |
Additionality, measurement, and permanency of soil carbon is in doubt |
| 6.7. |
Challenges in SCS deployment |
| 6.8. |
The soil carbon sequestration value chain |
| 6.9. |
Market trends for soil carbon sequestration in 2024 |
| 6.10. |
Soil carbon sequestration carbon credit market status in 2024 |
| 6.11. |
Soil carbon sequestration pros and cons |
| 6.12. |
Key takeaways: Soil carbon sequestration |
| 7. |
BASED CDR |
| 7.1. |
CO2 mineralization is key for CDR |
| 7.2. |
Ex situ mineralization CDR methods |
| 7.3. |
Source materials for ex situ mineralization |
| 7.4. |
Ex situ carbonation of mineral wastes |
| 7.5. |
Carbon dioxide storage in CO2-derived concrete |
| 7.6. |
CO2-derived concrete: Commercial landscape |
| 7.7. |
Oxide looping: Mineralization in DAC |
| 7.8. |
Enhanced weathering |
| 7.9. |
Enhanced rock weathering overview |
| 7.10. |
MRV in Enhanced Rock Weathering |
| 7.11. |
Enhanced weathering commercial landscape |
| 7.12. |
Enhanced rock weathering CDR market |
| 7.13. |
Enhanced rock weathering status: Startups |
| 7.14. |
Key takeaways: Mineralization CDR |
| 8. |
OCEAN-BASED CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL |
| 8.1. |
Introduction |
| 8.1.1. |
Ocean pumps continuously pull CO2 from the atmosphere into the ocean |
| 8.1.2. |
Ocean-based CDR methods |
| 8.1.3. |
Definitions of ocean-based CDR technologies |
| 8.1.4. |
Why ocean-based CDR? |
| 8.1.5. |
Scale and technology readiness level for ocean-based CDR |
| 8.1.6. |
Benchmarking of ocean-based CDR methods |
| 8.1.7. |
Key players in ocean-based CDR |
| 8.2. |
Ocean-based CDR: Abiotic methods |
| 8.2.1. |
Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) |
| 8.2.2. |
Electrochemical ocean alkalinity enhancement |
| 8.2.3. |
Ocean alkalinity enhancement status: Start-ups |
| 8.2.4. |
Direct ocean capture |
| 8.2.5. |
Direct ocean capture status: Start-ups |
| 8.2.6. |
Electrochemical direct ocean capture |
| 8.2.7. |
Electrolysis for direct ocean capture: Avoiding chlorine formation |
| 8.2.8. |
Other direct ocean capture technologies |
| 8.2.9. |
Barriers remain for direct ocean capture |
| 8.2.10. |
Artificial downwelling |
| 8.3. |
Ocean-based CDR: Biotic methods |
| 8.3.1. |
Status of coastal blue carbon credits in the voluntary carbon markets |
| 8.3.2. |
Algal cultivation – seaweed sinking |
| 8.3.3. |
Ocean fertilization |
| 8.3.4. |
Several ocean fertilization start-ups have failed |
| 8.3.5. |
Will ocean fertilization resurge in 2025? |
| 8.3.6. |
Artificial upwelling |
| 8.3.7. |
The governance challenge in large-scale deployment of ocean CDR |
| 8.3.8. |
MRV for marine CDR |
| 8.3.9. |
Price of ocean-based CDR credits |
| 8.3.10. |
Key takeaways: Ocean-based CDR |
| 9. |
CDR MARKET FORECASTS |
| 9.1. |
Forecast scope: Durable, engineered removals |
| 9.2. |
Forecast scope: Nature-based approaches |
| 9.3. |
Overall Carbon Dioxide Removal Forecast Methodology/Scope |
| 9.4. |
Carbon dioxide removal capacity forecast by technology (million metric tons of CO2 per year), 2025-2035 |
| 9.5. |
Data table for carbon dioxide removal capacity forecast by technology (million metric tons of CO2 per year), 2025-2035 |
| 9.6. |
Carbon dioxide removal carbon credit annual revenue forecast by technology (billion US$), 2025-2035 |
| 9.7. |
Data table for carbon dioxide removal carbon credit annual revenue forecast by technology (million US$), 2025-2035 |
| 9.8. |
Carbon dioxide removal market forecast, 2025-2035: discussion |
| 9.9. |
The evolution of the durable CDR market |
| 9.10. |
Changes since the previous IDTechEx CDR forecast |
| 9.11. |
DACCS carbon removal capacity forecast by technology (million metric tons of CO2 per year), 2025-2035 |
| 9.12. |
DACCS carbon credit revenue forecast by technology (million US$), 2025-2035 |
| 9.13. |
DACCS forecast methodology and discussion |
| 9.14. |
BiCRS forecast methodology |
| 9.15. |
BECCS, biochar and biomass burial carbon removal capacity forecast (million metric tons of CO2 per year), 2025-2035 |
| 9.16. |
BECCS, biochar, and biomass burial carbon credit revenue forecast (million US$), 2025-2035 |
| 9.17. |
BECCS: Forecast discussion |
| 9.18. |
Biochar and biomass burial: Forecast discussion |
| 9.19. |
Enhanced rock weathering carbon removal capacity forecast (million metric tons of CO2 per year), 2025-2035 |
| 9.20. |
Enhanced rock weathering carbon credit revenue forecast (million US$), 2025-2035 |
| 9.21. |
Mineralization CDR: Enhanced rock weathering forecast methodology and discussion |
| 9.22. |
Ocean-based CDR: Forecast methodology |
| 9.23. |
Ocean-based carbon removal capacity forecast (million metric tons of CO2 per year), 2025-2035 |
| 9.24. |
Ocean-based carbon credit revenue forecast (million US$), 2025-2035 |
| 9.25. |
Ocean-based CDR: Forecast discussion |
| 10. |
APPENDIX |
| 10.1. |
Large-scale DACCS projects database |
| 10.2. |
Operational BECCUS projects |
| 10.3. |
BECCS projects under construction or advanced development |
| 10.4. |
Biochar companies (1/2) |
| 10.5. |
Biochar companies (2/2) |
| 11. |
COMPANY PROFILES |
| 11.1. |
3R-BioPhosphate |
| 11.2. |
8 Rivers |
| 11.3. |
8 Rivers |
| 11.4. |
Airex Energy |
| 11.5. |
Airhive |
| 11.6. |
BC Biocarbon |
| 11.7. |
Brineworks |
| 11.8. |
CapChar |
| 11.9. |
Captura |
| 11.10. |
Carbo Culture |
| 11.11. |
Carbofex |
| 11.12. |
Carbogenics |
| 11.13. |
Carbon Asset Solutions |
| 11.14. |
Carbon Blade |
| 11.15. |
CarbonBlue |
| 11.16. |
Climeworks |
| 11.17. |
Climeworks |
| 11.18. |
Climeworks |
| 11.19. |
CO2 Lock |
| 11.20. |
DACMA |
| 11.21. |
Equatic |
| 11.22. |
Freeze Carbon |
| 11.23. |
JCCL (Japan Carbon Cycle Labs) |
| 11.24. |
Myno Carbon |
| 11.25. |
NeoCarbon |
| 11.26. |
neustark |
| 11.27. |
O.C.O Technology |
| 11.28. |
Paebbl |
| 11.29. |
Paebbl |
| 11.30. |
Parallel Carbon |
| 11.31. |
Phlair |
| 11.32. |
PyroCCS |
| 11.33. |
Seaweed Generation |
| 11.34. |
Skytree |
| 11.35. |
Takachar |
| 11.36. |
UNDO |
| 11.37. |
Vycarb |
| 11.38. |
WasteX |
| 11.39. |
Yama |
By user