Buying carbon credits to fight climate change? Here’s what to know

“,”centerText”:true},”hidden”:false}]}]}],”timestamp”:1741377396162,”id”:”U-hNjj4q”,”outcomeId”:”graph/1#2,graph/1#3,graph/1#5,graph/2#1,graph/2#32,subrule/3#1,subrule/3#6,subrule/3#10,graph/2#29,graph/2#33,graph/2#34,transformation/17″,”ruleId”:”H-newsletter-signup-308″,”resolvedComponentTemplates”:[],”languagePack”:{“entries”:{“forms.billing.history.date”:”Date”,”forms.billing.history.every”:”every”,”forms.billing.history.period”:”Period”,”forms.billing.history.subtotal”:”Subtotal”,”forms.billing.history.total”:”Total”,”forms.buttons.back-button”:”Back”,”forms.common.account-code.label”:”Have an account registration code? Enter it here”,”forms.common.account-code.placeholder”:”e.g. ACCOUNT001″,”forms.common.additional-section”:”Additional Section”,”forms.common.continue”:”Continue”,”forms.common.current-password”:”Current Password”,”forms.common.divider-text”:”or use”,”forms.common.email”:”Email”,”forms.common.email-edit”:”Edit”,”forms.common.email-placeholder”:”Your email address”,”forms.common.otp.code-sent-to”:”A message with a code has been sent to”,”forms.common.otp.enter-code”:”Enter the code in the box below.”,”forms.common.otp.forgot-password”:”Forgot Password?”,”forms.common.otp.forgot-password-code-sent”:”Code sent!”,”forms.common.otp.label”:”Code”,”forms.common.otp.placeholder”:”e.g. 350271″,”forms.common.otp.resend”:”Didn’t get a code?”,”forms.common.otp.resent”:”Resent!”,”forms.common.password”:”Password”,”forms.common.password-confirm”:”Confirm Password”,”forms.common.password-confirm-placeholder”:”confirm password…”,”forms.common.password-hide”:”Hide”,”forms.common.password-placeholder”:”password…”,”forms.common.password-show”:”Show”,”forms.common.password-validator.length”:”Must include at least 8 characters”,”forms.common.password-validator.match”:”Passwords match”,”forms.common.password-validator.number”:”Must include a number character”,”forms.common.password-validator.symbol”:”Must include a supported symbol”,”forms.common.password-validator.uppercase”:”Must include an uppercase letter”,”forms.common.social-sign-in-label”:”Continue with”,”forms.common.submit”:”Submit”,”forms.common.update”:”Update”,”forms.complete-registration-form.default-intro-text”:”Set up your password”,”forms.complete-registration-form.default-success-message”:”Thank you for updating your profile.”,”forms.contact-form.default-intro-text-1″:”Stay in touch”,”forms.contact-form.default-intro-text-2″:”Subscribe to our newsletter today”,”forms.contact-form.default-success-message”:”Thank you for submitting your contact information.”,”forms.data-capture-form.default-intro-text”:”Tell us more about you!”,”forms.data-capture-form.default-success-message”:”Thank you for updating your profile.”,”forms.devices.current-device-label”:”Current Device”,”forms.devices.login-time-label”:”Login Time”,”forms.devices.no-session-message”:”No Device sessions recorded”,”forms.devices.sign-out-button”:”Sign Out”,”forms.devices.sign-out-of-other-devices-button”:”Sign Out of Other Devices”,”forms.devices.your-devices-label”:”Your Devices”,”forms.errors.company-account-not-found”:”Account not found”,”forms.errors.contact-creation-disabled”:”This operation is not possible at the moment, please try again later”,”forms.errors.email-domain-blocked”:”Please use a different email address, this domain is not supported”,”forms.errors.email-taken”:”This email address is already registered. Please log in to continue”,”forms.errors.email-verification-required”:”Email verification is required”,”forms.errors.invitation-failed-duplicate-email”:”An invite has already been created for this email”,”forms.errors.invitation-failed-invalid-email”:”Invalid email address”,”forms.errors.invitation-failed-limit-reached”:”You have reached the sharing limit for this product”,”forms.errors.invitation-failed-no-product-access”:”You do not currently have access to this product”,”forms.errors.login-failed”:”The email address or password you entered is incorrect”,”forms.errors.no-authenticated-session”:”Please login to update your profile”,”forms.errors.otp-incorrect”:”The code you entered is incorrect”,”forms.errors.otp-or-password-incorrect”:”The password or code you entered is incorrect”,”forms.errors.otp-send-failed”:”Unable to send a verification code. Please try again later”,”forms.errors.password-reset-failed”:”Unable to reset your password. Please try again later”,”forms.errors.password-reset-link-send-failed”:”Unable to send a password reset link. Please try again later”,”forms.errors.promo-code-expired”:”Promo code expired”,”forms.errors.promo-code-invalid”:”Invalid promo code”,”forms.errors.promo-code-invalid-for-payment-option”:”Promo code cannot be applied to selected option”,”forms.errors.session-limit-reached”:”You have reached the session limit. Please log out from another device to access this content”,”forms.errors.too-many-requests”:”To gain login access, please contact your administrator”,”forms.errors.unknown-error”:”Something went wrong. Please try again later”,”forms.errors.unknown-payment-error”:”Something went wrong when processing your payment. Please try again later”,”forms.errors.user-attribute-invalid”:”Invalid user attribute”,”forms.errors.user-not-found”:”User not found”,”forms.list-subscriptions.billing-history-link”:”Billing history”,”forms.list-subscriptions.billing-history-text”:”To see previous invoices visit”,”forms.list-subscriptions.cancel-subscription-text”:”Cancel subscription”,”forms.list-subscriptions.change-default-payment-method-button”:”Change Default Payment Method”,”forms.list-subscriptions.change-payment-method-button”:”Change Payment Method”,”forms.list-subscriptions.change-payment-success-text”:”Payment successfully changed”,”forms.list-subscriptions.change-subscription-text”:”Change subscription”,”forms.list-subscriptions.next-payment-date”:”Next payment date”,”forms.list-subscriptions.no-subscriptions-message”:”You don’t have any subscriptions”,”forms.list-subscriptions.subscription-rate-label”:”Subscription rate”,”forms.payment.account-verification-section”:”Account Verification”,”forms.payment.invitation-button”:”Send Invite”,”forms.payment.invitation-description”:”You can invite people by entering their email”,”forms.payment.invitation-label”:”Email Address”,”forms.payment.invitation-link-sent”:”Invite sent!”,”forms.payment.invitation-title”:”Invite people to your sharable plan”,”forms.payment.login”:”Login”,”forms.payment.login-link”:”Login”,”forms.payment.login-link-message”:”Already a registered user?”,”forms.payment.password-setup-text”:”Create an account”,”forms.payment.payment-button”:”Confirm and process payment”,”forms.payment.payment-option-select-button”:”Select Plan”,”forms.payment.payment-section”:”Payment Details”,”forms.payment.payment-summary-disclaimer”:”Today’s payment may vary”,”forms.payment.payment-summary-prorate”:”DUE TODAY”,”forms.payment.payment-summary-tax”:”Tax”,”forms.payment.payment-summary-title”:”Subscription”,”forms.payment.payment-summary-total”:”TOTAL”,”forms.payment.plan-select-section”:”Plan Select”,”forms.payment.promo-code-button”:”Verify”,”forms.payment.promo-code-placeholder”:”Promo code”,”forms.payment.promo-code-text”:”Have a promo code?”,”forms.payment.reset-password-text”:”Reset your password”,”forms.payment.success-button”:”Continue Reading”,”forms.payment.success-message”:”Payment processed successfully”,”forms.registration.account-verification-section”:”Account Verification”,”forms.registration.default-intro-text”:”You’ve reached the limit of free articles”,”forms.registration.email-verification-required-message”:”A link has been sent to you. Please check your Email.”,”forms.registration.login”:”Login”,”forms.registration.login-link-text”:”A login link has been sent to”,”forms.registration.password-setup-section”:”Password Setup”,”forms.registration.password-setup-text”:”Create an account”,”forms.registration.resend-login-link”:”Didn’t get a link?”,”forms.registration.resend-login-link-resent”:”Resent!”,”forms.registration.reset”:”Reset!”,”forms.registration.reset-password-text”:”Reset your password”,”forms.registration.success-button”:”Continue Reading”,”forms.registration.success-message”:”You have signed up successfully!”,”forms.subscription-cancel.back-button”:”Back”,”forms.subscription-cancel.cancel-button”:”Cancel Subscription”,”forms.subscription-cancel.confirm-text”:”Are you sure you want to cancel?”,”forms.subscription-cancel.intro-text”:”Select a subscription to cancel”,”forms.subscription-cancel.offer-text”:”

We are sorry to see you go

Here is a special offer just for you.”,”forms.subscription-cancel.payment-option-select-button”:”Accept Offer”,”forms.subscription-cancel.reason-text”:”

We would like to hear your feedback

We’d appreciate it if you could to take a moment to let us know why you are cancelling.”,”forms.subscription-cancel.success-text”:”Your subscription has been cancelled”,”forms.subscription-select.amount-label”:”Amount:”,”forms.subscription-select.intro-text”:”Select a subscription to upgrade”,”forms.subscription-select.next-billing-date-label”:”Next billing date:”,”forms.subscription-select.no-change-plan-mapping-message”:”No upgrade options are available for this subscription”,”forms.subscription-select.no-subscriptions-message”:”No subscriptions available”,”forms.subscription-select.select-button”:”Select”,”forms.update-profile.update-email-title”:”

Update Email Address

“,”forms.update-profile.update-password-title”:”

Update Password

“,”forms.update-profile.your-profile”:”Your Profile”,”forms.update-profile.your-profile-title”:”

Your Profile

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Please try again later.”,”interstitial-page.passwordless-login.title”:”Welcome”,”interstitial-page.update-email.enter-password”:”Please enter your current password to complete the email update request.”,”interstitial-page.update-email.incorrect-password-error”:”Incorrect password.”,”interstitial-page.update-email.password”:”Password:”,”interstitial-page.update-email.return-home-link”:”Go back to the site”,”interstitial-page.update-email.submit-button”:”Update”,”interstitial-page.update-email.title”:”Changing your email”,”interstitial-page.update-email.unknown-error”:”Something went wrong! Please try again later.”,”interstitial-page.update-email-passwordless.message”:”Please check the inbox of your new email for further instructions.”,”interstitial-page.update-email-passwordless.title”:”Changing your email”,”interstitial-page.update-email-passwordless-success.message”:”You have successfully changed your email address.”,”interstitial-page.update-email-passwordless-success.title”:”Changing your email”,”interstitial-page.update-email-success.message”:”Your email has been updated successfully!”,”pages.account-management.account-select-dropdown”:”Select account”,”pages.account-management.delete-link”:”Delete”,”pages.account-management.delete-modal-body”:”Are you sure you want to delete this user?”,”pages.account-management.delete-modal-button”:”Yes Delete”,”pages.account-management.delete-modal-title”:”You are about to delete user”,”pages.account-management.delete-success-modal-body”:”has been successfully deleted.”,”pages.account-management.delete-success-modal-title”:”User Deleted”,”pages.account-management.errors.already-exists”:”already exists”,”pages.account-management.errors.delete-fail”:”Failed to delete”,”pages.account-management.errors.invite-fail”:”Could not invite user”,”pages.account-management.invite-button-text”:”Invite a User”,”pages.account-management.invite-modal-cancel-button”:”Cancel”,”pages.account-management.invite-modal-confirm-button”:”Invite User”,”pages.account-management.invite-modal-email-label”:”Email Address”,”pages.account-management.invite-modal-email-placeholder”:”Enter Email Address”,”pages.account-management.invite-modal-title”:”Invite User”,”pages.account-management.invite-success-modal-body”:”An invite has been sent to”,”pages.account-management.no-users”:”No users found”,”pages.account-management.owner”:”Owner”,”pages.account-management.search-button-text”:”Search”,”pages.account-management.search-placeholder-text”:”Search for a user”,”pages.account-management.success-modal-button”:”Close”,”pages.account-management.title”:”Manage Your Users”,”pages.cancel.back-to-subscriptions”:”Back to Subscriptions”,”pages.cancel.cancel-subscription”:”Cancel Subscription”,”pages.cancel.cancelled”:”Cancelled”,”pages.cancel.continue-subscription”:”Continue Subscription”,”pages.cancel.days-left”:”DAYS LEFT:”,”pages.cancel.plan-frequency”:”Frequency”,”pages.cancel.plan-name”:”Name”,”pages.cancel.plan-next-billing”:”Next Billing”,”pages.cancel.plan-period”:”Period”,”pages.cancel.plan-price”:”Price”,”pages.cancel.plan-type”:”Type”,”pages.cancel.select-plans”:”Select the plans you wish to cancel”,”pages.cancel.status-active”:”Active”,”pages.cancel.status-cancelled”:”Cancelled”,”pages.cancel.status-draft”:”Draft”,”pages.cancel.status-expired”:”Expired”,”pages.cancel.status-pending-acceptance”:”Pending Acceptance”,”pages.cancel.status-pending-activation”:”Pending Activation”,”pages.cancel.status-suspended”:”Suspended”,”pages.cancel.status-unknown”:”Unknown”,”pages.cancel.subscription-ends-on”:”Subscription ends on”,”pages.cancel.subscription-will-end-on”:”Your subscription will end on”,”pages.cancel.success”:”You’ve cancelled your subscription”,”pages.cancel.until-cancelled”:”Until Cancelled”,”pages.common.collapsible-content-text”:”See details”,”pages.common.confirmation-modal-cancel-button”:”Cancel”,”pages.common.confirmation-modal-confirm-button”:”Confirm”,”pages.common.confirmation-primary-error-message”:”Something went wrong!”,”pages.common.confirmation-secondary-error-message”:”Try again later.”,”pages.common.date-time-format-locale”:”en-US”,”pages.common.input-errors-invalid-email”:”Please enter a valid email”,”pages.common.input-errors-invalid-url”:”Please enter a valid URL”,”pages.common.input-errors-missing-value”:”Please enter a value”,”pages.common.loading”:”Loading…”,”pages.common.no-access-back-link”:”Go Back”,”pages.common.no-access-body”:”Sorry, you are not allowed to access this page. Click the button to go back.”,”pages.common.no-access-title”:”No access.”,”pages.common.password-hide”:”Hide”,”pages.common.password-show”:”Show”,”pages.login-reg.already-registered-sign-in”:”Already registered? 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Please check your inbox.”,”pages.pref-center.email-update-passwordless-title”:”Check Your Inbox”,”pages.pref-center.general-error”:”Something went wrong – please try again later”,”pages.pref-center.profile.attributes-select-list-placeholder”:”Select One”,”pages.pref-center.profile.attributes-update-save”:”Save”,”pages.pref-center.profile.attributes-update-title”:”Your profile”,”pages.pref-center.profile.email”:”Email Address”,”pages.pref-center.profile.email-update-email-label”:”New Email”,”pages.pref-center.profile.email-update-email-placeholder”:”Enter Email”,”pages.pref-center.profile.email-update-password-label”:”Your Password”,”pages.pref-center.profile.email-update-password-placeholder”:”Enter password”,”pages.pref-center.profile.email-update-save”:”Save”,”pages.pref-center.profile.email-update-step-2-title”:”Update Email Address”,”pages.pref-center.profile.email-update-title”:”Update Email Address”,”pages.pref-center.profile.errors.change-email-error”:”Sorry but your email address has not been changed. Please try again.”,”pages.pref-center.profile.errors.change-password-error”:”Sorry but we were unable to reset your password. Please try again.”,”pages.pref-center.profile.errors.email-already-taken-error”:”This email address is already taken.”,”pages.pref-center.profile.errors.incorrect-code”:”Entered code is incorrect”,”pages.pref-center.profile.errors.incorrect-password”:”The password you entered is incorrect”,”pages.pref-center.profile.errors.password-validation-error”:”Password is not strong enough”,”pages.pref-center.profile.errors.unsuccessful”:”Unsuccessful”,”pages.pref-center.profile.errors.update-profile-error”:”Sorry but we were unable to update your profile. Please try again.”,”pages.pref-center.profile.password”:”Password”,”pages.pref-center.profile.password-update-current-password-label”:”Current Password”,”pages.pref-center.profile.password-update-current-password-placeholder”:”Enter your password”,”pages.pref-center.profile.password-update-new-password-label”:”New Password”,”pages.pref-center.profile.password-update-new-password-placeholder”:”Enter a password”,”pages.pref-center.profile.password-update-save”:”Continue”,”pages.pref-center.profile.password-update-step-2-title”:”Reset your password”,”pages.pref-center.profile.password-update-title”:”Update Password”,”pages.pref-center.profile.title”:”Your Profile”,”pages.pref-center.profile.update”:”Update”,”pages.pref-center.profile.update-email-successful”:”Your email address has been changed.”,”pages.pref-center.profile.update-password-successful”:”Your password has been reset.”,”pages.pref-center.profile.update-profile-successful”:”Your profile has been updated.”,”pages.pref-center.profile.update-return-text”:”Return to Personal Information”,”pages.pref-center.profile.update-step-2-code-label”:”Code”,”pages.pref-center.profile.update-step-2-code-placeholder”:”e.g. 350271″,”pages.pref-center.profile.update-step-2-enter-code”:”Enter the code in the box below.”,”pages.pref-center.profile.update-step-2-message-sent”:”A message with a code has been sent to email address:”,”pages.pref-center.profile.update-step-2-new-code-modal-body”:”Would you like to send a new verification code to”,”pages.pref-center.profile.update-step-2-new-code-modal-button”:”Resend Code”,”pages.pref-center.profile.update-step-2-new-code-modal-title”:”Get a new verification code”,”pages.pref-center.profile.update-step-2-resend-code-link-text”:”Didn’t get a code?”,”pages.pref-center.profile.update-step-2-save”:”Submit”,”pages.pref-center.profile.update-successful”:”Success”,”pages.pref-center.share-product.modal-body”:”You can invite people by entering their email. Available seats:”,”pages.pref-center.share-product.modal-email-label”:”Email Address”,”pages.pref-center.share-product.modal-email-placeholder”:”Enter Email Address”,”pages.pref-center.share-product.modal-send-button-text”:”Send Invite”,”pages.pref-center.share-product.modal-title”:”Invite people to your sharable subscription”,”pages.pref-center.shared-members.done-button”:”Done”,”pages.pref-center.shared-members.invite-button-text”:”Invite new members”,”pages.pref-center.shared-members.manage-shared-members-title”:”Manage shared members”,”pages.pref-center.shared-members.no-members”:”This product is not currently shared with anyone.”,”pages.pref-center.shared-members.seats-used”:”seats used”,”pages.pref-center.shared-members.status-active”:”Active”,”pages.pref-center.shared-members.status-inactive”:”Inactive”,”pages.pref-center.shared-members.status-pending”:”Pending”,”pages.pref-center.shared-members.table-header-date”:”Date Shared”,”pages.pref-center.shared-members.table-header-email”:”Email Address”,”pages.pref-center.shared-members.table-header-status”:”Status”,”pages.pref-center.shared-members.table-remove-member”:”Remove member”,”pages.pref-center.shared-members.title”:”Shared Members”,”pages.pref-center.shared-products.errors.existing-invite-error”:”An invite has already been created for this email”,”pages.pref-center.shared-products.errors.invalid-email-error”:”Invalid email address”,”pages.pref-center.shared-products.errors.limit-reached-error”:”You have reached the sharing limit for this product”,”pages.pref-center.shared-products.errors.no-access-error”:”You do not currently have access to this product”,”pages.pref-center.shared-products.leave-product-body”:”Are you sure you want to leave this shared product?”,”pages.pref-center.shared-products.leave-product-title”:”Leave Product”,”pages.pref-center.shared-products.no-subscriptions”:”You do not currently have any products shared with you.”,”pages.pref-center.shared-products.remove-invite-body”:”Are you sure you want to remove this pending invite from your subscription?”,”pages.pref-center.shared-products.remove-invite-title”:”Remove Invite”,”pages.pref-center.shared-products.remove-member-body”:”Are you sure you want to remove this user from your subscription?”,”pages.pref-center.shared-products.remove-member-title”:”Remove Member”,”pages.pref-center.shared-products.remove-subscription”:”Leave shared subscription”,”pages.pref-center.shared-products.shared-by”:”Shared by”,”pages.pref-center.subscriptions.billing-history-link”:”Billing History.”,”pages.pref-center.subscriptions.billing-history-table-canceled”:”Subscription canceled”,”pages.pref-center.subscriptions.billing-history-table-header-date”:”Date”,”pages.pref-center.subscriptions.billing-history-table-header-period”:”Subscription Period”,”pages.pref-center.subscriptions.billing-history-table-header-subtotal”:”Subtotal”,”pages.pref-center.subscriptions.billing-history-table-header-total”:”Total”,”pages.pref-center.subscriptions.billing-history-title”:”Billing History”,”pages.pref-center.subscriptions.cancel-subscription-confirm-modal-body”:”Your subscription has been canceled.”,”pages.pref-center.subscriptions.cancel-subscription-confirm-modal-button”:”Close”,”pages.pref-center.subscriptions.cancel-subscription-confirm-modal-title”:”Subscription canceled”,”pages.pref-center.subscriptions.cancel-subscription-modal-body”:”Are you sure you want to cancel the subscription”,”pages.pref-center.subscriptions.cancel-subscription-modal-button”:”Cancel Subscription”,”pages.pref-center.subscriptions.cancel-subscription-modal-title”:”Cancel your subscription”,”pages.pref-center.subscriptions.cancel-subscription-title”:”Cancel your subscription”,”pages.pref-center.subscriptions.canceled-date”:”Canceled 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Over the last few years, though, carbon credits have faced increasing scrutiny. A string of academic studies and media investigations have concluded that many credits do not represent genuine emissions savings. One investigation concluded that over 90 percent of carbon credits issued for rainforest protection by the largest carbon credit certification body “had no benefit to the climate.” Two reports published in 2023 found that credits for forest-based projects in North America, South America, Africa and Asia may in fact increase net emissions. 

That same year, uncertainty over the validity of credits caused the voluntary carbon market to collapse; the market’s value dropped by more than 60 percent. Given the current situation, “it’s nearly impossible to be certain that what you’re buying is high integrity,” says Stephen Lezak, a researcher at the Berkeley Carbon Trading Project at the University of California, Berkeley. 

Amid all the controversy, it’s not clear what a consumer (celebrity or not) should do. To buy or not to buy? But understanding what carbon credits are, how they work and why the system has gone wrong can help.

What are carbon credits? 

As concern over climate change has grown, governments, companies, organizations and individuals have sought ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to keep the global average temperature to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Many are working toward net-zero goals, meaning that at some point in the future — by 2050 at the latest — any CO₂ emitted must be counterbalanced by eliminating emissions elsewhere or taking CO₂ out of the atmosphere. 

Achieving net zero should begin with every effort to eliminate or reduce the burning of fossil fuels, the main cause of global warming, says Kaya Axelsson, head of policy and partnerships at Oxford Net Zero, a research program at the University of Oxford.

Offsetting via carbon credits is another way to balance the carbon checkbook. The idea first took hold in the 1980s and picked up in the following decade. Industrialized countries that ratified the 1997 Kyoto Protocol became part of a mandatory compliance market, in which a cap-and-trade system limited the quantity of greenhouse gases those countries could emit. An industrialized country emitting over its cap could purchase credits from another industrialized country that emitted less than its quota. Emitters could also offset CO₂ by investing in projects that reduced emissions in developing countries, which were not required to have targets.

“The atmosphere doesn’t care where the emissions reductions happen,” says Barbara Haya, director of the Berkeley Carbon Trading Project.

The United States, which did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, is not part of any compliance market, but such markets exist within the country. California’s cap-and-trade program, for one, requires the participation of about 450 businesses responsible for about 85 percent of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions.

According to the United Nations, countries’ commitments are falling short of what’s needed to reign in rising temperatures. And President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 Paris Agreement, which superseded the Kyoto Protocol. The voluntary carbon market offers a private sector alternative to compliance markets. 

Demand for a voluntary market took off in the early 2010s as more companies took on net-zero goals for public relations or ethical reasons, or both. One carbon credit represents one metric ton of CO₂, either removed from the atmosphere or not emitted in the first place. Since the voluntary market’s inception, some 2 billion carbon credits have been issued, equivalent to about 5 percent of global annual emissions.

Offsetting is often cheaper than reducing, especially in cases where emissions-free options aren’t readily available, such as with jet fuel in the airline industry. If the cost to directly abate one ton of emissions is $1,000, but a company can buy a credit for much less, offsetting may make more sense, and cents.

Credits for removing CO₂ are usually straightforward, Lezak says. Whether it’s sucked from the air and stored underground or stashed in coastlines through mangrove restoration, “you can usually point to it [and] say, I took it out of the atmosphere,” he says.

But according to the Berkeley Carbon Trading Project’s Voluntary Registry Offsets Database, only about 4 percent of carbon credits in the voluntary market come from pure removals projects. The other 96 percent come from projects that claim to reduce or avoid emissions. They might limit methane released from landfills or swap solar panels in for fossil fuel–based power. The largest component of credits comes from avoided deforestation, in which forests that probably would have been felled are instead preserved.

How are carbon credits issued?

A carbon project involving forests typically begins with a landowner who is interested in taking some offsetting action. Perhaps a farmer decides not to cut down a patch of trees for agriculture. A project developer helps the landowner turn that offsetting action into carbon credits that compensate the farmer for the lack of produce — and profit. The developer works through a carbon credit certification body that’s responsible for verifying the project and issuing credits. Such organizations have methodologies for calculating how much carbon will be stored and converting that amount into carbon credits.

After the project is implemented, the developer hires a third-party auditor approved by the certification body to sign off on the project. Only after this independent look will the certification body issue credits.

“It’s nearly impossible to be certain
that what you’re buying is high
integrity.”

Stephen Lezak
a researcher at the Berkeley Carbon Trading Project

From there, the developer will often partner with a broker to find buyers. Brokers work on commission or buy credits from the developer and try to sell them at a profit. 

Carbon credits can be bought, sold and bundled in complicated ways before they’re ever used to offset emissions, Lezak says. That’s the final step in the process — retiring a credit — at which point it can no longer be bought and sold. Most often, when a credit is retired, it’s used to offset emissions generated from a carbon-intensive activity, like flying. But a credit can also be retired without any actual offsetting. 

By bundling credits that haven’t been retired and selling them in packages, brokers hedge against the reality that many credits may be of low quality, Lezak says. “The pooling mechanism gives the appearance of some protection against those risks.” Yet projects that go through the certification process may suffer from overcrediting, promising more emissions reductions than they can actually achieve. 

The problem of additionality

For a carbon credit to be issued, emissions reductions must be additional, meaning those greenhouse gases would have been emitted if the project didn’t exist. If a landowner never planned to cut down a forest to begin with, the purported reductions are nonadditional. 

Correctly calculating additionality requires accurately determining the baseline, business-as-usual scenario, says Alexander Shenkin, a forest ecosystem ecologist at Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff. But when baselines are incorrectly calculated, they usually result in too many credits being issued. A study published in 2023 in Science, for example, found that incorrect baselines led to carbon credits issued in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania and Zambia with no evidence of avoided deforestation. Forests were not at risk of being cut down, so the projects were nonadditional.

Some projects, Axelsson says, “sell four or five credits for every one ton of carbon.” When a business, country or individual uses meaningless credits to counterbalance their emissions, they are not achieving neutrality.

In a now famous example of overcrediting reported in the New Yorker, a company hired to sell credits for a project in Zimbabwe originally calculated that the project would keep about 50 million tons of CO₂ from the atmosphere. But after implementing an approved methodology, that number jumped to some 200 million credits to be issued over the course of the project. The project was paused before all credits could be issued, but by at least one estimate, the project had 30 times as many credits as it should have based on actual emissions savings. 

Excess credits undercut the price of legitimate ones, according to a paper published in 2020 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. When demand was high for carbon credits, as it was before 2023, the price per credit should have been high. But with a large supply of poor-quality credits flooding the market, the price stayed relatively low. 

According to S&P Global, the price of nature-based avoidance credits went from $11.50 per ton of CO₂ to just $3.50 over the course of 2023. In contrast, technological carbon capture credits hovered around $120 per ton of CO₂.

Third-party auditors can’t do much to improve projects, says former auditor Thales West, a forest scientist at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and lead author of the papers in Science and PNAS. “All I’m doing is checking the boxes that are related to the rules.… I wouldn’t have the power to say: You’re not going to get the certification.” 

More credits mean more money for the developer. Plus, the certification body gets paid per credit issued, so there’s an incentive to issue more credits. And because the developer pays the auditor, “there is a financial incentive for the auditor to sign off,” says Elias Ayrey, cofounder of Renoster, a start-up that independently scores the quality of carbon projects.

If an auditor approves a project, they’re more likely to get hired again, says Libby Blanchard, a political ecologist at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City. “If there’s some way to make the auditing process more independent and less tied to the outcome that the auditor provides, we would have a much better and transparent market.” 

Problems of leakage and permanence

Another dilemma is that carbon credits often ignore the interconnectedness of the world; actions in one place affect what happens elsewhere. If a rancher chooses not to turn forest into lucrative cattle-grazing land, that action is additional and seems to be deserving of carbon credits. But if the demand for the beef remains, deforestation might just happen elsewhere.

“Leakage happens when supply is restricted, but demand is unchanged,” Lezak says. An article in Climate Policy in 2021 illustrates the point. Deforestation shifted from Brazil’s Amazon to the less-regulated Cerrado — an incredibly biodiverse tropical savanna — after Brazil adopted the Amazon Soy Moratorium. Under the moratorium, established in 2006, soybean traders agreed not to purchase soy grown from newly deforested Amazon lands. However, the moratorium led to a 31 percent increase in soy production in the Cerrado. Deforestation there rose by an estimated 13 percent. 

Carbon projects, Lezak says, should be additional while also decreasing demand. Providing someone who cooks over an open fire with a fuel-efficient cookstove, for example, reduces emissions thanks to the increased energy efficiency. It also reduces local demand for wood, meaning less deforestation, without shifting demand elsewhere.

But even those projects may result in overcrediting, depending on how the emissions savings are calculated and how long and often the cookstoves are used. Because a project in Mozambique used stoves that couldn’t withstand rain, for instance, the stoves were largely abandoned earlier than expected.

Issues of permanence — project longevity — can also plague forest projects. Though they are designed to store carbon for a century, the projects are prone to wildfires, disease and illegal logging. “If that forest doesn’t last for 100 years,” Blanchard says, “that carbon was only temporarily sequestered.” 

Developers are supposed to check on the forests every five years or so. “But if something has gone terribly wrong,” Ayrey says, “the developer isn’t going … to report that.” The result: “zombie” credits from failed projects that are used for offsetting. 

The major certification bodies require some portion of credits issued for each carbon project be set aside and held in a buffer pool to function as a kind of insurance in case of catastrophe.

But buffer pools may be too small, as demonstrated in a 2022 study in Frontiers in Forests and Global Change. Looking at California’s forest carbon offsets, researchers found that wildfires had depleted nearly one-fifth of the buffer pool in less than a decade. When also accounting for disease, the scientists concluded that the buffer pool isn’t likely to guarantee the integrity of California’s offsets program for the requisite century. Plus, because greenhouses gases can last in the atmosphere for thousands of years, some experts argue that the century standard is not long enough anyway. 

How to improve the voluntary carbon market 

Government regulation of the voluntary carbon market could help ensure that carbon credits meet a standard quality, Ayrey says.

Regulation could also help with transparency. Each certification body has its own registry. “You know what credits have been issued, and then the next thing you know is who’s retired them, but you don’t know how many times the credits were bought and sold, and by whom,” Haya says. Along the way, she says, “you don’t know anything about prices.”

In September, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission adopted its first guidelines for the voluntary carbon market. Though guidelines do not have the same leverage as regulations, the guidelines were instrumental in bringing fraud charges against the U.S.-based developers of the Mozambique cookstove project. However, it is unclear how much of a role the government will play in more rigorously regulating the market. 

For forest projects, remote-sensing technologies, which can quickly image forests in and around projects to better determine baselines, could improve transparency. Because monitoring can be monthly, weekly or even daily, satellites can also keep an eye out for leakage and permanence problems.

Independent companies that rate carbon credits are springing up to do this kind of eyes-in-the-sky work. Buyers looking to purchase high-quality credits can pay start-ups like Renoster to assess projects. 

“The atmosphere doesn’t care where the emissions reductions happen.”

Barbara Haya
director of the Berkeley Carbon Trading Project

Some companies have stopped bothering with offsetting and started focusing on reducing the emissions they can control. These companies don’t want to buy low-quality credits, Lezak says. They also don’t want the PR backlash — or even lawsuits — that can come with false claims of neutrality, Shenkin notes.

Blanchard and colleagues argued last year in One Earth that credits based on emissions offsets is not a good system. Participants need to recognize that, in the market’s current state, “we’re not truly reducing our emissions,” Blanchard says.

The researchers envision a framework in which offset projects are reframed as climate mitigation projects. Companies or individuals may buy carbon credits or otherwise donate to projects. But “instead of claiming that you’re offsetting your emissions, you’re claiming that you’re contributing to global climate mitigation,” Blanchard says.

This scheme would eliminate the need for brokers and other middlemen. And it would preserve many of the co-benefits that stem from some of these projects. Many forest projects, for example, double as conservation efforts that maintain air quality and biodiversity. Some projects, Ayrey says, also return some revenue to people who live in or near the forests. 

Because funding is coming mostly from industrialized countries, the carbon market can bring in conservation funds to developing countries.

Without the market, “there’s one fewer way that we have to conserve these forests,” Shenkin says.

Ultimately, though, the market must shift toward removal-based technologies, Axelsson says, and encourage investment in new technologies for carbon capture and long-term storage.

So, should you buy carbon credits to offset airlines emissions? 

When it comes to buying carbon credits through an airline, Axelsson says she sometimes clicks “yes” as a signal that people do care about climate change — and demand action. “But I click ‘yes’ knowing that that’s not an offset,” she says. 

Another option is to estimate your emissions and support carbon projects on your own. An internet search will often reveal scandals, Ayrey says, and thus projects to avoid. Renoster also makes its reports public.

You can also vet companies based on whether they’re moving toward mitigation strategies that reduce their carbon footprint. The Science Based Targets initiative dashboard captures what companies around the world have pledged to do. 

In the end, if individuals want to reduce their carbon footprints, changing behavior will have a bigger impact than buying carbon credits, West argues. “You have to fly less, consume less meat, use bikes more.” 

Blanchard agrees. Permanently reducing your emissions, she says, “is way more meaningful.”