Two Wall Street firms slashed their year-end targets for the S & P 500 , the latest sign of mounting uncertainty among market strategists this week after President Donald Trump’s tariff rollout torpedoed stocks. Lori Calvasina, RBC’s head of U.S. equity strategy, chopped her S & P 500 target by more than 10%, to 5,550 from 6,200. The new projection suggests a decline of more than 5% from where the index ended 2024. Her new target is a low on Wall Street, according to CNBC Pro’s survey of sell-side market strategists. For now, the consensus S & P 500 target among all strategists surveyed is still that the large-cap stock index will end the year at 6,432. “With this move, our old bear case for the index this year has become our new base case,” Calvasina wrote in a note sent to clients Friday. RBC also lowered its full-year outlook for S & P 500 earnings per share by $6 to $258. Wells Fargo’s Investment Institute, meanwhile, cut its midpoint expectation for where the S & P 500 index will end 2025 to 6,000 from 6,600. That new target implies the index will see a return of just 2%, down from a prior forecast of a 12% gain. “Our forecasts and targets now broadly anticipate downshifting U.S. economic growth and somewhat stronger inflation in 2025. The additional drag on growth comes partly from several idiosyncratic factors in January, but even more from the now broad-based menu of tariff increases,” Wells Fargo told clients in a Friday note. “Tariffs should weigh on spending and profit margins and simultaneously spark higher goods prices and overall consumer price inflation.” The bank also reduced its expectations for corporate earnings across most asset classes, citing impaired sentiment and cooling economic growth. It now expects the S & P 500 to see earnings per share of $260 in 2025, or $15 below the prior $275 target. The lower forecasts come after Trump’s Wednesday action raising U.S. tariffs on imported goods spurred a steep global market sell-off and sparked retaliation by overseas trading partners. The S & P 500 has tumbled more than 8% this week, on track to record its biggest weekly drop since 2020. With this week’s decline, the S & P 500 has fallen squarely into a correction, defined as a drop of 10% from a recent peak. The broad market index is now down more than 13% in 2025 and 17% lower than its all-time high in February. .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500 this week Correction: An earlier version misstated RBC’s year-end target for the S & P 500. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
