The New York Times reported recently that the Chinese government was to halt exports of six rare earth elements that are refined entirely in China.
It will also cease to export certain specialized powerful rare earth magnets currently manufactured almost exclusively in China, which is responsible for 90% of global production.
The raw materials and specialized magnets are key for high-tech sectors such as the manufacture of cars, robots, and military equipment like drones and missiles.
China is developing a regulatory system that will require companies to apply for licenses to obtain certain raw materials, a drastic move will have a significant effect not only on the United States but also on Europe. For years now, countries have sought to reduce their dependence on China for critical raw materials, triggering a global race to secure reliable alternative supplies.
Europe is also coming to terms with the fact that trading with the US has itself become a risk factor. The European Union imports several critical raw materials from the US. For example, around two-thirds of the beryllium used in the EU currently comes from the US, something the EU considers a strategic resource.
In 2024, the EU also imported nearly 70% of its cobalt products, almost 60% of its copper alloys and silver powder and around half of its molybdenum concentrates from the US. The German Raw Materials Agency (DERA) classifies all these as critical raw materials.
As Inga Carry from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) told DW, helium, gallium, titanium and, to a lesser extent, rare earth elements are also imported from the US, which the EU classifies as strategic.
“We also still import a relatively large amount of coking coal from the US,” she said. “This means that, for some materials, the US remains an important supplier.”
Canada has a long mining tradition
China’s new restrictions mean the search for alternatives is becoming increasingly urgent. Many importers are now looking to Canada, a country with a long mining tradition. Around half of the world’s publicly listed mining companies are based there. It has around 200 mines extracting various minerals and metals, many of which are classified as critical raw materials. More mines may now be established.
China is currently the largest producer of rare earth elements, but the largest known reserves are actually located in Canada, according to the Canadian government.
Carry said some of Canada’s critical raw materials, such as coking coal and nickel, are already mined in commercial quantities, and a percentage of these are exported.
“Canada wants to increase the production of other raw materials it also considers critical — but its first priority is to meet its own demand,” she added.
This means the EU shouldn’t expect to be able to purchase these materials from Canada in the short term.
Furthermore, as Matthias Wachter of the Federation of German Industries explained, raw material projects have long lead times. On average, it takes 15 years to go from planning to approval and, eventually, extraction.
“I assume the process could be quicker in Canada, though, because many of these raw materials are already being mined,” said Wachter. “Also, some Canadian provinces have already announced they’ll be fast-tracking mining projects in response to the trade disputes with Trump.”
Mining is usually very expensive and carries significant risks, while the unpredictable behavior of US President Donald Trump has created uncertainty in global markets, which discourages investment. In uncertain times, companies tend to be much more reluctant to invest.
Chinese influence in Canada on the rise
Over the past two decades, many Canadian mining ventures have been financed by Chinese companies. State-controlled Chinese corporations are major shareholders in two of Canada’s biggest mining firms. According to the SWP, the Chinese company Shenghe recently acquired shares in Canada’s only rare earth mine.
Another Chinese company, Sinomine, operates one of Canada’s two lithium mines, in the central province of Manitoba. The lithium extracted there is then exported to China for further processing. Since 2019, Sinomine has also been operating a cesium mine in Canada, the only one of its kind in North America and Europe, and oversees all the processing of this critical mineral.
The SWP points out that this effectively gives China complete control over the cesium supply chain and raw material pricing.
China excluding competitors from the market
“Processing, in particular, often takes place in China, not least because it’s very energy-intensive and sometimes environmentally harmful,” said Wachter. “There’s also the fact that China has a targeted price and location policy for critical raw materials.”
Mining and processing in China are state-directed, and the price levels make it almost impossible for mining projects outside China to succeed commercially in a private-market context. As a result, many Western companies have had to withdraw from the raw materials sector.
Canada, meanwhile, also wants to become more independent of other countries. Since the end of 2022, foreign investments in critical raw material projects have been subject to national security reviews. The Canadian government has forced three Chinese mining companies to sell their stakes in two Canadian lithium exploration firms.
Canada is now offering tax incentives and funding to promote domestic raw material extraction, but the bulk of funding will still have to come from private investment.
US, Canada are closely interconnected
Even during Trump’s first term, Canada sought to become more independent from the US. Instead, the opposite happened.
“A very large proportion of the raw materials mined in Canada are either processed in the US or exported there,” said Carry. “Canada is the largest raw material supplier for the United States.”
In light of the ongoing tariff disputes, Carry suggests that we can expect Canadian producers to look more to the European market: “Especially for raw materials that, until now, they have exported to the US, for which they’re now seeking alternative buyers.” However, Carry warns that China has established a quasi-monopoly on many critical raw materials. Neither the EU nor Canada will be able to become fully self-sufficient in these sectors.
This article was originally written in German.
