Standing before Suffolk County legislators on April 8, County Executive Edward P. Romaine repeated a pledge he first made as Brookhaven town supervisor: Every budget, “no matter how tough times get,” will stay under the state-mandated tax cap.
The Republican county executive, while projecting a positive outlook for the county’s financials, hinted at economic uncertainty that lies ahead and the “extraordinary budgeting” it will require.
Several converging pressures — from inflation to stagnating sales tax revenue — present a cloudier picture of the county’s future finances, which experts say could make it challenging for county officials to avoid hiking taxes or cutting services.
They will need to address a new police union contract that boosts pay, additional union contracts that are still to be negotiated, nearly $91 million in red light camera ticket fees that courts have ruled illegal and uncertainty of future federal aid. And all of this comes at a time when President Donald Trump’s tariff policy has pushed the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to almost 50%, Reuters reported this month, based on polling of economists.
Last month, the Suffolk County Legislature’s Budget Review Office published a review of the county executive’s 2025-28 multiyear financial plan, which forecast “the need for difficult decisions in future operating budgets.”
The nonpartisan Budget Review Office forecast a deficit in the general fund of $552 million in 2028, about $207 million more than the county executive’s projection. The report also forecast a deficit of $307 million in the police district fund, about $172 million more than the county executive’s projection.
The county’s 2025 budget totaled $4 billion, which raised taxes but stayed under the cap.
The report anticipates that “policymakers would take corrective action” to lessen the annual deficits, which could include spending from reserves, property tax hikes and hiring freezes.
Romaine told Newsday after the State of the County he’s prepared to keep a balanced budget.
“I’ve dealt with difficult financial situations in the past,” he said. “This is nothing new to me.”
Martin Cantor, director of the Long Island Center for Socio-Economic Policy, said projecting several years in advance can be challenging, so a deficit forecast wouldn’t sound alarms just yet.
“You don’t panic over it; you pay attention to it,” he said in an interview. “And you budget accordingly.”
He said if the county executive doesn’t want to increase property taxes, there “might be some belt-tightening at the county level on expenditures.”
County legislators on April 8 approved the contract with the Suffolk County Police Benevolent Association that runs Jan. 1, 2025, through Dec. 31, 2029. The contract raises officers’ base pay by 18% over five years, a figure lawmakers and union leaders say represents a fair bump and falls below the rate of inflation. It also shortens the number of steps in the salary schedule for an officer to reach top step. An officer at top pay would make $189,801 before overtime or other stipends, the report said.
A Budget Review Office report on the contract projected salary costs, as well as longevity pay and other costs would total $229 million over the length of the contract.
The county has outstanding contracts to negotiate with three of its largest unions: the Suffolk County Superior Officers Association, the Suffolk County Correction Officers Association and the Suffolk Association of Municipal Employees, whose newly elected leadership takes over in July.
Thad Calabrese, a professor at NYU’s Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, said the first union to reach an agreement “basically sets the parameters and the tone for the subsequent contracts with the other unions.”
He said in an interview that it’s a challenging time for any municipality to negotiate new contracts or plan budgets given the rise in inflation in recent years and increased health care costs. Municipalities are also facing the end of federal pandemic money as well as uncertainty over federal aid from the Trump administration as it slashes the federal budget, he said.
Calabrese said it’s not unreasonable for a labor union to want to keep pace with inflation, otherwise “it’s essentially a pay cut.”
Legis. Jason Richberg (D-West Babylon), the minority leader, said wages have stagnated in many county positions and a salary study to gather data on employee titles and salaries remains outstanding.
“We have to balance the fact that if we raise all these salaries, it’s going to cut our bottom line,” he said and potentially impact the ability to stay under the tax cap.
Romaine in his State of the County also repeated a pledge he made early in his tenure to settle “some of the large lawsuits that are outstanding.”
Last year, Newsday reported that plaintiffs sought more than $1 billion in legal claims against the county over the past 15 years. A county comptroller report for the end of fiscal year 2023 estimated liability for claims at more than $615 million. A report for 2024 will not be available until mid-year, according to the comptroller’s office.
Michael Martino, a spokesman for Romaine, declined to comment on whether the county planned to dip into reserve funds to pay for settlements.
Calabrese said generally municipalities should spend reserve funds on emergencies. Lawsuit settlements would typically be funded with operating revenue, he said, whereas the reserves are meant to help the government manage an unexpected event like the pandemic.
Cantor said there’s a balancing act between maintaining healthy reserves and spending that money when needed. Maintaining adequate reserves “impresses the bond rating agency” that sets interest rates when a municipality raises revenue for short-term expenses through tax anticipation notes, he said.
Romaine in the State of the County highlighted the county’s four bond upgrades in 2024 and said the county will continue to try to pay down debt.
The Budget Review Office review of the multiyear financial plan forecast sales tax revenue to remain flat from 2025 to 2026 and then increase by 0.14% in 2027 and 0.18% in 2028 to $1.95 billion. Sales tax revenue represents the largest revenue stream, at 40%, in the county’s 2025 adopted budget.
“In the event of a recession or other negative financial shocks, the resulting impact to County sales tax revenue would be dire,” the report says.
Legis. Steven Flotteron (R-Brightwaters), the deputy presiding officer and chair of the Budget & Finance Committee, said recently that the economy and sales tax are both concerns going forward.
Calabrese said when a government’s costs increase and revenues are flat, only two options remain: raise more revenue through higher taxes or cut spending.
“And neither are great options,” he said.
Standing before Suffolk County legislators on April 8, County Executive Edward P. Romaine repeated a pledge he first made as Brookhaven town supervisor: Every budget, “no matter how tough times get,” will stay under the state-mandated tax cap.
The Republican county executive, while projecting a positive outlook for the county’s financials, hinted at economic uncertainty that lies ahead and the “extraordinary budgeting” it will require.
Several converging pressures — from inflation to stagnating sales tax revenue — present a cloudier picture of the county’s future finances, which experts say could make it challenging for county officials to avoid hiking taxes or cutting services.
They will need to address a new police union contract that boosts pay, additional union contracts that are still to be negotiated, nearly $91 million in red light camera ticket fees that courts have ruled illegal and uncertainty of future federal aid. And all of this comes at a time when President Donald Trump’s tariff policy has pushed the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to almost 50%, Reuters reported this month, based on polling of economists.
WHAT NEWSDAY FOUND
- A mix of new union contracts, inflation and stagnating sales tax revenue could put a strain on Suffolk’s finances.
- County Executive Edward P. Romaine has said his proposed budgets will stay under the tax cap.
- The county’s general fund could face a deficit as high as $552 million in 2028, according to a report by the Suffolk legislature’s Budget Review Office.
Last month, the Suffolk County Legislature’s Budget Review Office published a review of the county executive’s 2025-28 multiyear financial plan, which forecast “the need for difficult decisions in future operating budgets.”
The nonpartisan Budget Review Office forecast a deficit in the general fund of $552 million in 2028, about $207 million more than the county executive’s projection. The report also forecast a deficit of $307 million in the police district fund, about $172 million more than the county executive’s projection.
The county’s 2025 budget totaled $4 billion, which raised taxes but stayed under the cap.
The report anticipates that “policymakers would take corrective action” to lessen the annual deficits, which could include spending from reserves, property tax hikes and hiring freezes.
Romaine told Newsday after the State of the County he’s prepared to keep a balanced budget.
“I’ve dealt with difficult financial situations in the past,” he said. “This is nothing new to me.”
Martin Cantor, director of the Long Island Center for Socio-Economic Policy, said projecting several years in advance can be challenging, so a deficit forecast wouldn’t sound alarms just yet.
“You don’t panic over it; you pay attention to it,” he said in an interview. “And you budget accordingly.”
He said if the county executive doesn’t want to increase property taxes, there “might be some belt-tightening at the county level on expenditures.”
Union contracts
County legislators on April 8 approved the contract with the Suffolk County Police Benevolent Association that runs Jan. 1, 2025, through Dec. 31, 2029. The contract raises officers’ base pay by 18% over five years, a figure lawmakers and union leaders say represents a fair bump and falls below the rate of inflation. It also shortens the number of steps in the salary schedule for an officer to reach top step. An officer at top pay would make $189,801 before overtime or other stipends, the report said.
A Budget Review Office report on the contract projected salary costs, as well as longevity pay and other costs would total $229 million over the length of the contract.
The county has outstanding contracts to negotiate with three of its largest unions: the Suffolk County Superior Officers Association, the Suffolk County Correction Officers Association and the Suffolk Association of Municipal Employees, whose newly elected leadership takes over in July.
Thad Calabrese, a professor at NYU’s Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, said the first union to reach an agreement “basically sets the parameters and the tone for the subsequent contracts with the other unions.”
He said in an interview that it’s a challenging time for any municipality to negotiate new contracts or plan budgets given the rise in inflation in recent years and increased health care costs. Municipalities are also facing the end of federal pandemic money as well as uncertainty over federal aid from the Trump administration as it slashes the federal budget, he said.
Calabrese said it’s not unreasonable for a labor union to want to keep pace with inflation, otherwise “it’s essentially a pay cut.”
Legis. Jason Richberg (D-West Babylon), the minority leader, said wages have stagnated in many county positions and a salary study to gather data on employee titles and salaries remains outstanding.
“We have to balance the fact that if we raise all these salaries, it’s going to cut our bottom line,” he said and potentially impact the ability to stay under the tax cap.
Settling lawsuits
Romaine in his State of the County also repeated a pledge he made early in his tenure to settle “some of the large lawsuits that are outstanding.”
Last year, Newsday reported that plaintiffs sought more than $1 billion in legal claims against the county over the past 15 years. A county comptroller report for the end of fiscal year 2023 estimated liability for claims at more than $615 million. A report for 2024 will not be available until mid-year, according to the comptroller’s office.
Michael Martino, a spokesman for Romaine, declined to comment on whether the county planned to dip into reserve funds to pay for settlements.
Calabrese said generally municipalities should spend reserve funds on emergencies. Lawsuit settlements would typically be funded with operating revenue, he said, whereas the reserves are meant to help the government manage an unexpected event like the pandemic.
Cantor said there’s a balancing act between maintaining healthy reserves and spending that money when needed. Maintaining adequate reserves “impresses the bond rating agency” that sets interest rates when a municipality raises revenue for short-term expenses through tax anticipation notes, he said.
Romaine in the State of the County highlighted the county’s four bond upgrades in 2024 and said the county will continue to try to pay down debt.
The Budget Review Office review of the multiyear financial plan forecast sales tax revenue to remain flat from 2025 to 2026 and then increase by 0.14% in 2027 and 0.18% in 2028 to $1.95 billion. Sales tax revenue represents the largest revenue stream, at 40%, in the county’s 2025 adopted budget.
“In the event of a recession or other negative financial shocks, the resulting impact to County sales tax revenue would be dire,” the report says.
Legis. Steven Flotteron (R-Brightwaters), the deputy presiding officer and chair of the Budget & Finance Committee, said recently that the economy and sales tax are both concerns going forward.
Calabrese said when a government’s costs increase and revenues are flat, only two options remain: raise more revenue through higher taxes or cut spending.
“And neither are great options,” he said.
