Getty Images
Mortgage rates tend to be at the front of the minds of homebuyers today. After all, interest rates — and mortgage rates in particular — have been stubbornly high over the past year, putting pressure on buyers and sidelining many homeowners who had hoped to refinance. While inflation has been dropping, it remains above where the Federal Reserve would like it to be, which has led to the Fed keeping rates paused for the last several months. As a result, today’s average mortgage rates remain well above the levels seen just a few years ago.
That, in turn, is having a big impact on the cost of buying a home right now. But if rates were to drop slightly — pushing mortgage rates below 6% — it would mark a significant financial shift for potential homebuyers. Mortgage rates below 6% could bring lower monthly payments and improve affordability for those taking out mortgages. So, for those on the fence about buying a home, the idea of sub-6% mortgage rates could be quite appealing.
So, how likely is it that mortgage rates will actually fall below that 6% threshold in the near future? Here’s what experts have to say about the likelihood of that happening.
Find out how low your mortgage rate could be now.
Will mortgage rates drop below 6% soon?
Here’s what experts have to say about the likelihood of mortgage rates dropping below 6% soon.
When mortgage rates could drop below 6%
Some experts believe there’s a real possibility that mortgage rates could drop under 6% this year. However, it’s unlikely that such a drop would occur overnight, experts say, and may not be likely that it will occur anytime soon.
“As a mortgage company owner who’s seen the ups and downs of this industry for over 25 years, I remain cautiously hopeful that we’ll see rates drop below 6% again — maybe even sooner than the headlines suggest,” says Nathan Young, founder of mortgage lender North Star Mortgage Network. “But here’s the truth: It won’t happen overnight, and it certainly won’t be driven by wishful thinking.”
That said, there is some optimism that homeowners could get their wish for sub-6% rates, says Matthew Teifke, principal at residential property management firm TR3 Capital.
“Yes, I do believe there’s a real possibility that mortgage rates will dip below 6%, especially as inflation continues to show signs of cooling and the Fed considers rate cuts in the back half of the year,” Teifke says. “While we’re not there yet, momentum is building.”
Steve Hill, a mortgage broker at SBC Lending, caps the odds of mortgage rates dropping to that level this year at 20% — and thinks those odds will go up in 2026.
“I’d say there’s a low chance of it happening in 2025, maybe a 10% to 20% chance with the odds increasing to 40% to 50% in 2026,” Hill says. “Rates are coming down slower than most analysts anticipated.”
Not all experts think rates could drop below 6% this year, however.
“Unfortunately, I don’t think mortgage rates are going to get below 6% any time soon or this year,” Neft says. “I certainly hope I’m wrong, but it looks like there are a lot of headwinds for rates.”
Lock in a competitive mortgage rate today.
What needs to happen for mortgage rates to drop below 6%
A few things will need to change with the economy for rates to sneak below 6% this year, experts say. For example, inflation will need to decline further and the Fed will need to cut rates, Neft says.
“Right now there’s just a lot of economic uncertainty with tariff talk and inflation still being pesky,” Neft says. “While the Federal Reserve doesn’t control mortgage rates … I think they’re going to want to see inflation figures like CPI and PPI start to level off or retreat before lowering their rates, and if they start to see inflation going down, mortgage-backed securities will hopefully then benefit and we’ll see a dip in rates.”
The Fed looks at multiple economic factors to decide whether it will lower rates, including inflation-related metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). If the CPI and PPI consistently decline in the coming months, the Fed may cut rates, experts say, which could ultimately lead to lower mortgage rates.
“If inflation continues to ease and gets closer to their 2% target, the Fed is more likely to lower the federal funds rate — which strongly influences mortgage rates,” Young says. “Until inflation is clearly under control, we’re unlikely to see any significant rate drops.”
Another factor that could drive rates lower is the 10-year Treasury bond market. If uncertainty continues about where the economy is headed, 10-year Treasurys could become more popular with investors looking for safe investments. And that, in turn, could drive down bond rates and, consequently, mortgage rates.
The bottom line
Whether or not mortgage rates dip below 6% this year, it’s clear that economic conditions are evolving — and that could mean more rate movement in the months ahead. But with predictions all over the map, trying to time the “perfect” rate can be risky. Many experts agree that if today’s rates work for your budget and long-term goals, it may not make sense to hold out indefinitely for something better.
Still, staying informed on the latest market signals and expert insights can help you make the most confident borrowing decision possible. And if rates do drop below 6% soon, you’ll know exactly what drove the shift — and whether it’s the right moment to lock in a deal.
