Premium Bonds prizes are becoming increasingly out of reach as the total value of bonds in circulation surges beyond the growth of the prize fund. According to new Moneyfacts data for i paper, the odds of winning the £1million jackpot are strikingly slim.
More than 130 billion bonds were eligible for the monthly prize draw in April. The prize fund rate has dropped to 3.8%, and National Savings and Investments (NS&I) says the odds of any £1 bond winning a prize are now 22,000 to one. For someone holding the minimum £25, Moneyfacts calculates the odds of winning the £1million jackpot or another high-value prize, such as £50,000, at one in 22 million. The chance of winning a smaller £10,000 prize is nearly one in four million, while the odds of winning the smallest £25 prize are one in 880.
Premium Bond odds have worsened because investments have surged while the prize fund has not kept up.
NS&I sets aside a monthly fund based on an interest rate – now 3.8% as of April 2025, down from 4% in January – but more bonds competing for a largely unchanged pot means lower chances per bond.
A Freedom of Information (FOI) request obtained by AJ Bell’s Dodl investing app found that nearly two-thirds of Premium Bond holders, equivalent to just under 14.4 million people, have never won a prize.
What are Premium Bonds?
Premium Bonds are a savings account offered by NS&I, backed by the Treasury. Instead of earning regular interest, each £1 bond is entered into a monthly prize draw, with prizes ranging from £25 up to £1million. Between £25 and £50,000 can be invested per person.
In April, just 78 people won the £100,000 prize and 158 won £50,000. By contrast, over 5.8 million smaller prizes between £25 and £100 were handed out.
Historically, odds have varied. In 2023, the odds of winning any prize were 21,000 to one, compared to today’s 22,000 to one. During 2020, the odds were even worse at 34,500 to one, and in 2008 and 2009 they reached 36,000 to one.
Money experts argue that traditional savings accounts may now offer better returns. Speaking previously on his BBC 5Live podcast, the Martin Lewis Podcast, Martin Lewis said: “Most people should be looking at putting money in Cash ISAs first because, with typical luck, you will win substantially more in a top one-year fix than you would in Premium Bonds and you’d see them win more in an easy access cash ISA.
“The thing about Premium Bonds is people live the dream in the hope that they’re going to be the person who wins the £1million and virtually nobody will – but that’s why it’s appealing.
“People always say things like ‘I win £25 every month’, and in my cynical head I go ‘yeah but if you put the same amount of money in the top cash ISA, you get a guaranteed win of £40 every month’.”
Mr Lewis added: “They’re not awful, I’m just about ‘what’s the best?’, and for me, they’re not the best.”
