The investors in Trupanion, Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:TRUP) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 24% to US$45.00 in the week following its quarterly results. Revenues of US$342m arrived in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.03, an impressive 38% smaller than what broker models predicted. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there’s been a change in sentiment towards the company. We’ve gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Trupanion’s five analysts is for revenues of US$1.40b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 5.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share statutory losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.024 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.085 in 2025. So despite reconfirming their revenue estimates, the analysts are now forecasting a loss instead of a profit, which looks like a definite drop in sentiment following the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Trupanion
As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$52.25, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. There’s another way to think about price targets though, and that’s to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Trupanion, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$60.00 and the most bearish at US$41.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock’s future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Trupanion’s revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 23% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.3% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Trupanion is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
