The copper market is seeing big changes lately. A short-term trade truce between the US and China has helped push copper prices up, giving investors some relief. At the same time, China is producing more refined copper than ever before.
But there’s a problem, there isn’t enough copper ore to meet demand. Even with record imports, supply is still tight. With inflation and global growth concerns still hanging around, the market remains on edge.
Let’s study deeper…
Copper Prices Rally on Eased Trump’s Tariff Tensions
COMEX July Futures: Copper futures for July delivery are trading at approximately $4.68 per pound (or $10,296 per tonne), reflecting a 1.3% increase following the recent US-China trade truce.
This boost came after a temporary easing in trade tensions between the US and China. Investors welcomed the news, anticipating smoother trade flows and fewer disruptions in global commodity markets.
What’s Driving the Copper Price Surge?
Elaborating further, both countries have rolled back tariffs for the next 90 days. US tariffs on Chinese goods dropped to 30%, while China cut its tariffs on US imports to 10%. This move has created a positive ripple effect across commodities, stocks, and currencies.
According to media sources, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the agreement as a “very good framework” and stressed that the US is not seeking full economic decoupling from China. This statement helped further calm market fears.
Another significant factor that pushed up copper prices was China’s record-high imports in April. The world’s largest copper consumer imported nearly 3 million tonnes of copper concentrate last month. Experts predict that this increase could ease supply tightness and help local smelters, which have been struggling with low ore availability.
Challenges Still Persist for Chinese Copper Smelters
While China’s copper imports have surged, its smelters remain under pressure. According to Discovery Alert, spot treatment charges turned negative in December and fell further to -$57.50 per tonne by early May. Smelters are now paying to process ore, which is a sign of tight supply and intense competition.
China’s refined copper production has hit all-time highs, even though copper ore remains in short supply. The situation worsened due to a two-month export halt at Indonesia’s PT Freeport mine and a smelter shutdown in the Philippines. Both events tightened global supply but later helped China when ore flow resumed.
According to Mysteel Global analyst Li Chengbin, Chinese plants are better prepared this year, securing long-term contracts and benefiting from resumed exports out of Indonesia.
A Look Back: The Copper Price Shakeup
Just days before the trade truce, copper prices took a hit. On April 4, Bloomberg reported a sharp decline in both copper and global equity markets. On the London Metal Exchange, prices dropped as much as 7.7%, briefly reaching $8,735 per tonne before rebounding slightly.
Earlier, traders had rushed to ship copper into the US to avoid rising tariffs. Premiums surged to $500 per tonne. Major firms like Mercuria and Trafigura had predicted copper prices could hit $12,000 per tonne. But when the US unexpectedly shortened the tariff deadline, buyers were caught off guard, and stockpiles began piling up outside US ports.
Copper Market Outlook 2025–2026
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) shared its latest copper forecast during a meeting held on April 25, 2025, in Lisbon. Both mine and refined copper production are expected to see solid growth through 2026.
ICSG expects a surplus of about 289,000 tonnes for 2025, slightly higher than the surplus of 194,000 tonnes forecast last September. It’s a surplus of about 209,000 tonnes is currently expected for 2026. This is attributed to weak global demand, particularly influenced by U.S. tariff policies.
Mine Production on the Rise
In 2025, global copper mine production is projected to increase by 2.3%, reaching around 23.5 million tons. This growth will be driven mainly by the continued ramp-up of major projects like Kamoa in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, along with the commissioning of the new Malmyz mine in Russia.
However, some of these gains will be partially offset by expected output declines in Australia, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan.
For 2026, the ICSG expects a slightly higher growth rate of 2.5%. This will be supported by ongoing capacity expansion, particularly in China, as well as an expected recovery in Indonesia and improved output from Chile and Zambia.
Additionally, several smaller mining operations and mid-sized projects in countries like Brazil, Iran, Uzbekistan, Ecuador, Eritrea, Greece, Angola, and Morocco will contribute to the overall production increase.
Refined Copper Output Expanding
Refined copper production is forecast to rise by about 2.9% in 2025. The increase will be fueled by continued capacity expansion in China and new refining operations starting in Indonesia, India, and the DRC.
Growth in 2026 is expected to slow slightly to 1.5%, but output will still benefit from ongoing upgrades and new capacity additions across several countries.
In short, the global copper market is on a growth path, with new projects and recovering output in key regions setting the stage for steady production gains through 2026.
Other Forecasts
-
Long-Term Price Predictions: According to LongForecast, copper prices are expected to average around $4.535 per pound in May 2025, with potential fluctuations ranging from $4.180 to $4.896.
-
Goldman Sachs has revised its copper price forecast for Q2 2025 to $9,330 per tonne, up from the previous estimate of $8,620, citing shifts in the global metals market.
The US-China trade truce has breathed new life into the copper market, lifting prices and calming investor nerves. China’s record copper imports have also helped support global demand. But the road ahead is still uncertain. All in all, inflation, interest rates, and economic growth will all play a role in copper’s next move.
