Codexis, Inc. (NASDAQ:CDXS) just released its latest first-quarter report and things are not looking great. Earnings missed the mark, with revenues of US$7.5m falling badly (22%) short of expectations. Losses were mildly higher, with a US$0.25 per-share loss being 5.4% above what the analysts modelled. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there’s been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we’ve gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Codexis’ seven analysts is for revenues of US$65.5m in 2025. This would reflect a major 31% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 23% to US$0.69. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$65.7m and losses of US$0.72 per share in 2025. It looks like there’s been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.
View our latest analysis for Codexis
The average price target held steady at US$7.08, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so – it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Codexis analyst has a price target of US$11.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$3.00. So we wouldn’t be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Codexis is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 44% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 3.2% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 6.0% annually. So it looks like Codexis is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.
