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The past decade hasn’t been kind for ITV (LSE:ITV) shares. As a traditional commercial broadcaster, the FTSE 250 company’s relevance in an increasingly digital age is a growing cause for concern.
At 78.8p per share, ITV’s share price has slumped 69.1% from 254.71p 10 years ago. It means a £10,000 investment in the company back then would now be worth £3,078.
A stream of dividend income has helped soften the blow, though this wasn’t uninterrupted — payouts were suspended for a brief period during the pandemic. In total, the business has delivered cash rewards of 61.6p for each share.
However, this still means a £10k investment a decade ago would have provided a return of £5,503, or -45%.
ITV’s ejection from the FTSE 100 three years ago capped a truly terrible time for the company. But I’m wondering whether the broadcaster could now be a top recovery play for share investors to consider.
Mixed outlook
Unfortunately, share price forecasts are unavailable for ITV shares for the next decade. City analysts have provided numbers for the following 12 months, though. And on balance they are taking a positive position.
That said, there’s nothing here to get investors too excited. The consensus opinion from the seven analysts with ratings on ITV stock predict only a fractional increase over the next year, to around 79.9p.
There are also some large variations between these price forecasts. One forecaster thinks the broadcaster will soar almost 40% in value over the next year. Another believes it will sink by a figure approaching 23%.
Bulls and bears
Broadcasters are highly cyclical businesses, so predicting share price movements during uncertain times like these is loaded with peril. ITV’s own share price has been extremely volatile in 2025, reflecting conflicting signals on US trade policy and the differing scenarios for economic growth and interest rates.
So far this year, advertising revenues have matched forecasts (down 2% in quarter one). But they could potentially go into freefall if worsening economic conditions cause marketing budgets to be slashed.
Despite this threat, I believe ITV shares could still be an attractive recovery stock to consider. While streaming giants like Netflix pose significant long-term dangers, they also carry massive opportunities for the company’s ITV Studios arm.
External revenues here rose 20% in quarter one, the company said, thanks to “strong demand from, and the timing of deliveries to, global streaming platforms“. ITV Studios is on course to deliver average yearly organic revenue growth of 5% between 2021 and 2026, ahead of the wider market.
The broadcaster is making a big mark on the streaming landscape, too, through its own massively popular ITVX platform. It was the fastest-growing UK service in 2023 and 2024, and in the first quarter, total streaming hours rose 12% year on year.
The success of ITVX is also expected to supercharge digital advertising revenues to £750m by 2027. That’s up from £482m last year.
Solid value
Today the business trades on a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 9.2 times. It also carries a 6.2% corresponding dividend yield.
On balance, I think it’s a top recovery stock for value investors to consider.
