Read the first half of this series, “Next stop, fiscal cliff: Advocates respond to Illinois legislators’ failure to fund transit before the deadline.”
The failure of the Illinois House to pass a bill funding public transportation across the state before the May 31 deadline means that transit agencies will need to cut service. Facing a budget gap of $771M, the Regional Transportation Authority, the CTA, Metra, and Pace will begin this week to plan for reduced operating budgets in 2026. The agencies can only budget for funding they are confident they will receive, excluding any potential money from a special session or veto session that has not yet been passed. The process of planning for service cuts takes months to analyze, schedule, and staff appropriately, and the transit systems cannot wait any longer.
While the agencies have warned of a 40 percent cut in service, this does not mean it will be applied equally across all routes. The specific scheduling and route reductions have yet to be fully analyzed, which will require balancing multiple requirements for maintaining fare revenue, avoiding inequitable outcomes, and continuing service for dependent riders. Eventually, maps and announcements will come out, providing a visualization of the cuts. Some unofficial maps have already been posted online, illustrating the dramatic potential of these cuts.
The RTA is still obligated to produce half of its funding through system-generated revenue, largely from passenger fares. In deciding what service to cut, service boards may have to emphasize schedules and routes with a higher return on investment, as they seek to balance the cost of each passenger trip. Non-standard services, like express trains or special event service can cost more to operate if they require operator layovers.
The service boards are obligated under the Federal Transit Administration’s Title VI Circular to ensure major changes to service do not disproportionately impact people of color. This can be seen in the timeline for rolling out the CTA’s 10-minute frequent bus network throughout 2025, with routes on the South and West sides seeing spring increases before most North Side routes. With service cuts due to start in 2026, the roll out of frequent schedules may be put on hold. On the flip side, these 20 bus routes are more likely to be retained during a process that will see entire bus routes cease to exist in any form.
Accessibility must also be prioritized by law, and stations without wheelchair access would likely be retained in the event of station-by-station closures. Under the Americans with Disabilities Act, paratransit service must be provided for similar service hours and locations as fixed routes, requiring a higher per-ride subsidy due to a requirement for fares set at less than twice the regular service. Reducing the operating hours of transit service to whole geographic areas would likely lead to a corresponding reduction in paratransit service, such as Pace’s proposed curtailing of weekend bus and paratransit service.
“There are folks for whom there are no other options,” said Laura Saltzman, Senior Policy Analyst at Access Living. “If you rely on paratransit in the suburbs, you can’t go to church, can’t see your family. There’s no way around how devastating this will be.”
The agencies may also opt to consider cutting redundancies within the network. The CTA Purple Line’s express section serves the same stations as the Red and Brown lines, for instance, and so a service reduction may force Evanston riders into a longer journey that includes a transfer to the Red Line. Frequent peak-hour service might also be reduced, leading to more packed trains.
Service cuts also have their own associated cost. Maps and wayfinding would need updating. Mothballing unused stations will also require stabilizing maintenance. Losing experienced operators predicates long training periods for future hires. Even a short budget gap will add to the ongoing imbalance.
“CTA has had tremendous difficulty hiring after COVID, and a round of layoffs could set us back another five years or longer,” said Kyle Lucas, executive director of Better Streets Chicago. “Forcing our transit agencies to turn their heads away from service improvements to instead plan service cuts and hand pink slips to union workers is the definition of inefficient and tremendously irresponsible.”
While the transit agencies have separate capital budgets to buy vehicles and make infrastructure improvements, future system expansions may also be at risk. Each service board may see reduced competitiveness in federal capital grant applications. For example, the FTA’s Capital Improvement Grants include a rating on “Local Financial Commitment” that downgrades agencies with recent cuts to service.
For a region already outside the good graces of the Trump administration, this could jeopardize federal funding for system expansions. That might mean the end of new Pace Pulse routes, deferral of the CTA’s Red-Purple Modernization phase two in Evanston, Rogers Park, and Edgewater, and a continued lack of passenger rail to Rockford.
Downstream effects
Reduced service isn’t the only outcome to be expected, however. Those riders without alternative means of transportation may need a more expensive ride-hail trip, or may have to change their place of employment. Riders with the option to drive will be more likely to choose that alternative. Both of these behavior changes can cause economic and environmental turmoil.
For those with limited means of mobility, this could reduce their financial independence. “The cuts would be catastrophic for people with disabilities,” said Saltzman. “We have to get this dealt with. Disabled people will lose their jobs.”
Even for those not using transit, the increased cost of commuting will add up. Argonne National Laboratory studied the value of transit to the region, and found that funding transit has a 13 times return on investment. A $771 million cut could equate to a roughly $10 billion annual loss in economic productivity for the Chicagoland region.
Service cuts may reduce housing equity, since proximity to Metra stops is a significant factor impacting property values in suburban Chicagoland. Some studies place this transit proximity premium at 4-24 percent of the home value, and up to 42 percent of office space value. Chicago’s downtown office recovery may also stall as commuting becomes more onerous, potentially increasing vacancies.
We can expect increased traffic congestion, particularly coming from areas with high park-and-ride use. A full Metra train carries 500 to 1,200 people. An average freeway lane can carry up to 2,200 vehicles per hour, so removing a single BNSF rush hour train might fill a lane on the Eisenhower for half an hour.
Sierra Club Illinois also highlighted the impact on local air pollution as transit riders switch to private motor vehicles and move slower in traffic congestion. “Many are aware, but many more are about to be aware,” said Jack Darin, the local chapter’s director. “The 40 percent service reductions and all the air pollution that comes from people being forced to get into cars is going to become much more real as the transit agencies have to start putting these cuts in motion.As the reality of service cuts begins to take shape over the next few months, the increasing pressure of public awareness may just inspire change in Springfield. If lawmakers call a special session to pass HB3438 in the house, or both chambers pass a new version of the bill, most of these cuts can be averted. Waiting until the fall veto session would make reversing the cuts hard, and waiting until the 2026 regular session would be even harder. Transit advocates and riders are hoping lawmakers prioritize funding soon to avert the worst case of the doomsday scenario.
Read the first half of this series, “Next stop, fiscal cliff: Advocates respond to Illinois legislators’ failure to fund transit before the deadline.”
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