(Bloomberg) — Treasuries slumped after stronger-than-expected US job and wage growth prompted traders to trim bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
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The Friday selloff lifted yields across maturities by as much as 12 basis points, led by shorter-dated tenors more sensitive to Fed rate changes. The benchmark 10-year note’s rate rose 12 basis points to 4.51%, and yields across the spectrum once again exceeded 4%.
Interest-rate swaps showed traders now see a roughly 70% chance of a quarter-point rate cut by September, compared with a probability of about 90% on Thursday. The amount of easing priced in for the year declined to about 43 basis points, fewer than two quarter-point cuts.
“You are seeing a little bit of the bond market reaction here of pricing out a bit of the expectations in terms of the Fed,” Jeffrey Rosenberg, portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc., said on Bloomberg Television. “The big takeaway is a slowing-but-still strong labor market.”
Nonfarm payrolls increased 139,000 last month after a combined 95,000 downward revisions to the prior two months. The median forecast of economists was for an increase of 126,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, while hourly wages picked up.
Gains for US equities also curbed demand for bonds. The S&P 500 rose about 1%.
Following the job report, President Donald Trump urged the Fed to cut rates by a full point, intensifying his pressure campaign against Chair Jerome Powell.
Fed policymakers have said they are waiting for more data before lowering rates as they balance the risks of still elevated inflation and a potential economic slowdown. Officials have said it could take months to gain clarity on the economic impacts of sweeping policy changes, particularly around trade.
Consumer price index data for May, scheduled to be released June 11, is expected to slow acceleration, according to the median economist estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The overall rate is seen rising to 2.5% from 2.3%, the core rate to 2.9% from 2.8%.
Fed officials traditionally observe a communications blackout beginning the second Saturday before a meeting, a period that begins June 7. Also ahead next week are Treasury auctions of three- and 10-year notes and 30-year bonds, whose expected yields are higher as a result of Friday’s selloff.
This week’s data has painted a mixed picture of the job market amid the uncertainties of the Trump administration’s tariff wars. ADP private-sector payrolls showed hiring decelerated in May to the slowest pace in two years, while job openings unexpectedly rose in April.
“There’s nothing here to change the status quo for the Fed,” said Ed Al-Hussainy, a rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investment, referring to Friday’s report. “Some downside bets on Fed cuts this summer will likely come out.”
Economists at Citigroup — whose Fed policy forecast was among the most dovish on Wall Street — revised it based on the jobs report. They expect a rate cut in September versus July previously, and at each of the subsequent four meetings through March.
That remains a notably dovish call. The most common forecast among major Wall Street banks is for just one cut this year, in either September or December.
Traders are still wagering on policymakers keeping rates on hold at their June 17-18 gathering, and see only about 12% odds of a move in July.
“The jobs number takes June and July off the table,” said Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree. “We continue to play this waiting game and with no visible slowing in jobs, the market now turns to focusing on whether the disinflation trend continues with CPI next week.”
What Bloomberg strategists say…
“While the initial bond reaction has focused on the earnings beat (and possibly the marginal headline beat), in aggregate this data doesn’t really move the needle on our understanding of the labor market.”
— Cameron Crise, Markets Live Blog macro strategist
In the currency market, a Bloomberg gauge of the dollar rose to the day’s high after the release of the report, trimming its loss this week to 0.4%.
The Treasury selloff undermined popular wagers that longer-term yields would continue rising more than shorter-term ones. Based on expectations for Fed rate cuts capping short-term yields and for persistent budget deficits causing investors to demand higher long-term yields, so-called curve-steepening trades have been working since March.
This week, however, the gap between five- and 30-year yields narrowed about 12 basis points, the most since October.
–With assistance from Carter Johnson, Edward Bolingbroke and Alice Gledhill.
(Updates prices.)
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