The EU’s homegrown carbon removal opportunity

Lisett Luik is co-founder of Arbonics, a carbon credit company

EU scientists are right to warn about the use of international credits, but we should not reject all carbon credits

In its latest report published earlier this month, the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change recommended that the EU reduces its emissions by 90-95 per cent by 2040, and warned against the use of international carbon credits.

The warning has rightly grabbed headlines. After years of poor-quality projects and questions around additionality, the call for greater caution on international credits is well founded. But the report also underscores the importance of carbon removals, and advocates for separate targets to support its development.

The rejection of international credits does not necessarily mean rejecting all carbon credits. Instead, the EU should continue to rebuild trust in carbon markets by investing in credible, high-quality carbon removal within its own borders. Europe has the science, regulation and land to do so. What is needed is the political will and market confidence.

As the report points out, investing in removals and supporting viable business models for their rapid, sustainable scale-up is the only way to counterbalance the residual emissions (5-10 per cent) and enable negative emissions after 2050. The report urges public institutions to support this approach, in line with the Science Based Targets initiative’s recommendation for businesses to reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 90 per cent by mid-century and recent guidance on investing in removals in parallel.

Time and investment

Investing in carbon removal projects in Europe is critical to reducing emissions — and a great opportunity for the public and private sector. The EU has already taken a significant step with the Carbon Removals and Carbon Farming Certification Regulation, and supporting its implementation will be key to ensuring the credibility of EU-based carbon removals.

However, it is important to remember that carbon removal is an emerging field. Most nature-based and engineered projects rely heavily on private sector funding, according to CDR.fyi, which tracks market activity. It recently reported that only 0.6 per cent of companies with SBTi targets have purchased carbon removals, which is why the ESABCC’s call for clear targets and domestic investment is important. If Europe wants to lead in removals, it must back the market mechanisms to support them, and the actors building them.

Additionally, building up supply takes time and needs immediate investment. In 2024, Verra, the world’s largest voluntary carbon standard, issued 13.4mn credits globally from agriculture, forestry and other land use projects. However, just 0.5 per cent of these (65,000 credits) came from Europe, according to its registry.

If Europe wants to lead in removals, it must back the market mechanisms to support them, and the actors building them

In the case of afforestation — planting new forests on previously empty land, which directly removes CO₂ from the atmosphere — the picture is even bleaker. Fewer than 1,000 credits were issued from European projects in 2024. 

This is particularly concerning because afforestation is one of the most cost-effective carbon removal methods and can be implemented at scale using available land and techniques, as highlighted in another ESABCC report, published in February.

If done right, afforestation offers carbon removal — together with co-benefits that include improving ecosystems, protecting biodiversity and providing economic benefits to rural communities. Furthermore, a recent study in Nature highlighted the strong public support for afforestation as a carbon removal method.

Potential and interest galore

It is not a question of potential: Europe has more than 14mn hectares of land suitable for afforestation. Even converting just 1.1mn hectares of abandoned or poor-quality land could remove an estimated 9.3mn tonnes of CO₂ annually, according to research conducted by Arbonics. These are removals we can measure, verify and trust, and that come with powerful co-benefits.

There is also no shortage of interest from landowners across Europe. In countries from the Baltics to the Nordics and beyond, many landowners are exploring how to participate in afforestation and other nature-based projects that meet high environmental and social standards.

Landowners are increasingly seeking trusted partners to support project development. What is missing is the upfront investment, technical support and policy certainty to translate that interest into credible carbon removal credits.

Unlike expensive engineered solutions — for example, direct air capture often costs upwards of €600 a tonne — nature-based carbon removal offers a far more cost-effective path today, from around €50 a tonne, while also delivering immediate co-benefits. 

By choosing to invest in nature-based carbon removal in Europe, governments and business have a chance to achieve more than just their climate goals: to protect biodiversity, support rural economic development and help to build climate resilience through ecosystem restoration. We just need investment in the growing community of landowners and developers, who are ready to act and scale-up the models.