- NZD/USD regains positive traction on Wednesday amid a modest USD weakness.
- Reduced RBNZ rate cut bets underpin the NZD and further support spot prices.
- Geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties might cap ahead of the Fed decision.
The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buying near the 0.6000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Wednesday and reverses a part of the previous day’s retracement slide from the vicinity of the year-to-date peak. Spot prices, however, remain confined within a familiar range held over the past two weeks or so and currently trade around the 0.6030 area as traders keenly await the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to announce its decision later during the US session and is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged amid concern that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs could push up consumer prices. Hence, the accompanying policy statement, which includes the updated dots plot, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments during the post-meeting press conference will be scrutinized closely for cues about the future rate-cut path. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the NZD/USD pair.
Heading into the key central bank event risk, expectations that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September amid signs of easing inflation and a slowing economy fail to assist the USD to capitalize on the previous day’s strong move up. This, along with rising bets for just one more interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), acts as a tailwind for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the NZD/USD pair. However, a combination of factors might keep a lid on any further gains.
Investors remain on edge amid persistent trade-related uncertainties and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained strength above the 0.6065-0.6070 supply zone before placing fresh bullish bets around the NZD/USD pair and positioning for any meaningful upside in the near term.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
