What’s going on here?
Australia’s carbon credit demand is expected to remain low until 2027, keeping prices steady around AU$40 per tonne.
What does this mean?
Australia’s carbon credit market is steadied, with prices likely stable until compliance buying resumes. A drop from 50 to 46 million credits in Q1 suggests low immediate demand, but as the March 2026 safeguard mechanism deadline nears, strategic buying is expected. Meanwhile, potential oversupply could arise due to increased unit issuance. In New Zealand, oversupply issues persist, though prices might rise later this year, foreshadowing growth in 2026 despite current rates below NZ$68 per tonne.
Why should I care?
For markets: Waiting for the compliance wave.
Oceania’s carbon markets show mixed trends: steady but low demand in Australia, and oversupply in New Zealand. Investors could find opportunities as compliance deadlines spur strategic buying, possibly causing demand and price fluctuations.
The bigger picture: Carbon market shifts across the globe.
Asia’s markets face weak compliance buying, contrasting with Oceania’s gains. Globally, voluntary carbon market issuances in May surpassed expectations, indicating evolving environmental investing dynamics. These shifts mirror broader trends and could shape future policies and strategies.
