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Resurgent US inflation could unfold as the world economy reels from Donald Trump’s disruptive trade policies, the Bank for International Settlements warned.
That bleak scenario was described by General Manager Agustin Carstens, presenting an annual report that catalogued how existing global vulnerabilities have been further exposed by the American president’s actions since taking office in January.
“We were meant to have a soft landing — everything was going according to plan,” the former Mexican central-bank chief told reporters. “Then we had this very substantive period of volatility with the threat that tariffs would make more difficult convergence towards 2% in some countries.”
The final report of Carstens’ term in office, published Sunday, details a backdrop of economic uncertainty at “levels typically associated with crises,” driven by higher import levies imposed by the White House, albeit limited for now during a 90-day hiatus.
Growth prospects have diminished while risks have intensified with regard to the stability of consumer prices, public finances and the financial system, the BIS said.
Facing such challenges, the Basel officials counsel central banks to stay focused on core missions in order to preserve and foster trust, and to enhance the effectiveness of their actions.
Carstens highlighted how the Federal Reserve may encounter an especially hard time in the current environment. Chair Jerome Powell is steadfastly resisting White House pressure to cut interest rates.
“In the US, you could face a very difficult scenario for the central bank, which is when you have higher inflationary pressures or deviating inflationary expectations and a slowdown in the economy,” he said. “That is a circumstance that central banks usually find particularly difficult.”
In a speech to central bankers on Sunday, Carstens highlighted how it’s not just monetary officials who have a responsibility to foster credibility in economic management.
“Trust cannot stop at monetary policy and the door of the central bank,” he said. “It must extend to every aspect of public policy. People must trust that policymakers and elected officials will act to advance legitimate objectives and will do so effectively.”
The BIS report frequently emphasized inflation risks, including how trade disruption could hit economies already squeezed by aging populations and labor shortages, and hurt the supply of goods.
Officials stressed that the increased sensitivity of consumers after the pandemic may combine with still-heightened expectations on living costs to feed renewed challenges on price stability.
Such analysis in light of recent spikes in crude oil that have since partially receded may give policymakers pause.
“It’s a case of once bitten, twice shy,” said Hyun Song Shin, economic adviser at the BIS. “It’s very important to make sure that just a one-off price increase does not translate into a sustained inflation episode.”
Other dangers relate to unprecedented national debt accumulated in some countries. Among OECD members, interest payments as a percentage of gross domestic product reached 4% last year and will keep rising, the report said.
“Risks to inflation and financial stability can more easily originate from or be propagated through stress in sovereign bond markets,” the BIS said. “Growing concerns about fiscal sustainability could give rise to refinancing challenges and potentially dislodge inflation expectations.”
Meanwhile officials warned that the threat could emanate in the other direction too, with volatile or persistent price increases driving up government bond yields.
The way investors respond to global developments is another sensitivity. A separate chapter analyzed how global financial markets have become more connected, transmitting conditions faster from one economy to another.
“Macro-financial vulnerabilities have the potential to amplify economic developments, including the anticipated slowdown triggered by the shift in trade policy and heightened uncertainty,” the report said.
The BIS laid out a list of policy prescriptions to promote growth and productivity, such as loosening labor markets, cutting bureaucracy, removing trade barriers and raising public investment, while also counseling fiscal repair.
On supervision, officials warned against any loosening of bank regulatory requirements, and called for close monitoring of non-bank financial institutions.
As for central banks, the BIS advised them to “carefully balance” growth and inflation risks, especially given how an era when consumers took price shocks in their stride seems to have passed.
“That world has ended,” said Andrea Maechler, the BIS deputy general manager. “Now there’s a much bigger sensitivity whenever you see any price increase — the fear that it’s not just a simple price increase, but that it affects the inflation dynamics.”
–With assistance from Bastian Benrath-Wright and Zoe Schneeweiss.
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