The more emission cuts you offset abroad with carbon credits, the more you can pollute here in the EU in the meantime. That could lead to countries easing up on CO2 cuts they would have otherwise had to make before 2040.
That said, the EU will likely set a carbon credit ceiling. A draft of the Commission proposal suggests using carbon credits for up to 3 percent of the 90 percent goal (starting in 2036). That gives countries a buffer if they struggle to reduce pollution in difficult sectors like transport or agriculture.
But that 3 percent is a moving target and could change during negotiations. France, for instance, may push to increase it to anywhere from 5 to 10 percent.
Beyond the numbers, the inclusion represents a reputation-defining shift for the EU, long a vanguard of the global climate movement. Critics say carbon credits will dent that credibility — and create the unfortunate optics of the EU, a relatively wealthy region, relying on climate efforts in developing nations to hit their goals.
Still, even with carbon credits, von der Leyen is going to struggle to get her proposal through. Countries like France and Poland have signaled they want to delay the 2040 target, raising questions about its future.
Who will check if these credits are legit?
A U.N. supervisory body. It will review the carbon-cutting claims from project developers.
