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FTSE 100 bank Barclays (LSE: BARC) has put in a rip-roaring performance over the past few years. The Barclays share price has moved up an impressive 186% over the past five years.
Now, that is a somewhat unusual timeframe in the sense that the baseline is low. Five years ago, the country was still in the midst of the pandemic and its long-term impact on banks’ profitability was a question for debate.
Still, there is more to the strong Barclays share price performance than just a low baseline. In the past year alone, it has moved up by 57%. What is going on here – and might it still make sense for me to invest now?
The spread of Barclays’ business is both a blessing and a curse when it comes to financial performance. It is a blessing because the bank’s large global investment banking division can help it make profits even when a weak British economy proves challenging for local retail banking rivals such as Lloyds and NatWest.
But it is a curse because it means that even solid performance in its own UK retail bank can be overlooked by investors if they are worried about Barclays’ international investment banking performance.
The past year has shown the strength of the approach, in my view. The 57% rise in the Barclays share price is almost the same as NatWest’s 58% and handily beats the 40% growth in Lloyds’ shares over the same period.
I think that is because a relatively benign economic outlook in the UK has lifted City confidence in all of these firms’ UK retail banking operations.
Meanwhile, the same is true for Barclays’ investment banking arm. Global markets have so far been surprisingly resilient in the face of uncertainty about US tariffs, geopolitics and international economic growth prospects.
What comes next remains to be seen
The thing that concerns me as an investor is that I reckon those risks have not gone away. Just because the global economic performance so far in 2025 has been better than some analysts feared does not mean the underlying risks have disappeared.
In fact, I have seen some warning signs in recent weeks that concern me on this score, from the US planning to raise its already enormous debt burden to year-on-year UK house price falls over the past couple of months. The exact details vary depending on how different sets of statistics are interpreted, but the mood music has been shifting, as far as I am concerned.
Does this feel like we are on the cusp of a golden era of economic growth, either internationally or here in the UK? I have doubts – and they are getting stronger.
I could be wrong. Barclays has a large customer base, strong brands, is hugely profitable and has navigated all manner of financial crises through its long history. So it could be that the current Barclays share price-to-earnings ratio of 9 still offers a long-term bargain.
The risks are unnerving me though, as they could lead to higher loan defaults and weaker profits for banks. That concerns me to the point that I do not plan to buy any bank shares in the near future. That includes Barclays.
