Say goodbye to the prospect of a rate cut this summer.
Investors have slashed the odds of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month after data released Thursday indicated the job market was unexpectedly strong in June.
The robust jobs report gives the central bank room to keep interest rates elevated, with employment strong and inflation remaining above its 2% target.
The report indicated that employers added 147,000 jobs to the economy last month, handily beating expectations of 110,000. In another sign of strength, payrolls for May were revised upward to 144,000, and the overall unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the perceived chances of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points plunged Thursday morning, dropping from a 23.8% chance Wednesday to 6.7% after the release of the jobs report.
Markets still see a September rate cut as likely, with odds of about 71% after the jobs report.
Stocks moved slightly higher as traders cheered the strong data, but dimmer rate-cut views kept a lid on more pronounced gains. Still, the S&P 500 managed to rise to a fresh intraday record of 6,271.
The bigger reaction to the jobs data was in the bond market.
Yields jumped on the prospects for the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 4 basis points to about 4.34%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury, which is the most sensitive to Fed policy, spiked 9 basis points to 3.88%.
“The firm June unemployment rate waves the Federal Reserve off the possibility of a July rate cut, which shifts the spotlight to September,” Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate, wrote in a note.
“If businesses keep expanding payrolls like they’ve done so far this year, the Fed can comfortably sit in ‘wait and see’ mode at the upcoming policy meeting. Uncertainty around tariffs and trade have apparently not spooked businesses into shedding workers,” said Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial.
Pressure on Powell
The report is unlikely to lead to rate cuts this month, which means the Trump administration’s withering criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell could intensify.
Powell has signaled the central bank is comfortable holding interest rates steady while the central bank monitors the path of inflation and any impact from tariffs.
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This week, Powell said the Fed would have cut rates already were it not for Trump’s trade war.
Trump, who has harangued Powell to cut rates for years, posted on Truth Social on Wednesday suggesting the Fed chief leave his position.
“‘Too Late‘ should resign immediately!!!” Trump wrote, referring to the nickname he has frequently called Powell to express his annoyance at not cutting interest rates earlier.
Trump’s post also linked to an article detailing a post on X from William Pulte, the FHFA director, who suggested that Congress should investigate Powell.
Pulte has criticized Powell for hurting the housing market by keeping rates high.
“Like this tweet if you think it’s time for Jerome Powell to resign,” Pulte said in a separate post Wednesday evening.
According to the latest Freddie Mac survey, the 30-year US fixed mortgage rate hovered at about 6.77% last week.
Still, Powell looks likely to stand pat on interest rates, even amid escalating political pressure, Bankrate’s Hamrick said.
“He is determined to serve out the remainder of his term not being swayed by political pressure or blunt criticism from the president,” he added. “Indeed, the president’s pressure could have the opposite of the intended impact.”
Others have speculated that Trump’s criticism only makes it less likely that Powell will bend and lower rates. Observers say Powell may now be more focused on his legacy of protecting Fed independence.
