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BT Group (LSE:BT.A) shares have a bit of a spotty track record over the last 20 years. The UK telecommunication giant has gone through several management teams during this period, and not all of them have been great leaders. In fact, between the end of 2015 and the start of 2020, the share price was slashed in half, due to an accounting scandal, surging debt burdens, shrinking profitability, and dividend cuts.
However, in the last five years, things have started looking far rosier. While the journey hasn’t been smooth, BT shares are up over 75%. And when throwing in the extra gains from dividends, a £1,000 investment in July 2020’s now worth £1,788.
What’s driving this growth? And could this upward trajectory continue into 2026?
Digging deeper
The rebound in the BT share price, in my opinion, can largely be attributed to Allison Kirkby. She’s the new-ish CEO who took over in early 2024. Shortly after, the stock started moving back in the right direction as Kirkby began executing her turnaround strategy.
Skip ahead to today, and some measurable progress has been made. The company has accelerated the rollout of its full fibre-broadband offering to over 18 million homes, delivered £913m in annualised cost savings in its 2025 fiscal year (ending March), expanded profit margins, and is currently on track to generate £2bn in free cash flow within less than two years.
At the same time, the overleveraged balanced sheet is slowly being repaired while the group’s pension deficit is also being tackled. In short, the company appears to be on a firmer path to recovery – a welcome change of pace versus the pre-Kirkby era.
What’s next?
While her performance as CEO is encouraging, there remain several weak spots. Most notably, revenue growth’s still elusive. There are a few driving factors behind this, including the migration of existing customers from legacy products to new ones, as well as intense competition and weak corporate customer demand.
However, the most prominent threat highlighted by analysts at Citigroup is the threat of alternative network providers chipping away at BT’s Openreach dominance. And if the company can’t defend its territory, improvements in profitability may ultimately be offset by a shrinking top line.
As such, the consensus from institutional investors remains fairly mixed today, with around half recommending it as a Buy, while the other half has it ranked as a Hold or Sell. And looking at price forecasts, it also seems that BT shares are currently trading near the average consensus of 203p.
What does this all mean? In short, the turnaround potential of BT appears to be already baked in to the share price today. Therefore, despite the encouraging progress made, this isn’t a stock I’m rushing to buy right now.
