June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show prices rose at a faster clip compared to May. The report, due Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, comes as investors closely monitor whether President Trump’s tariffs are starting to filter through to what consumers pay, even as inflation data has so far remained more resilient than expected.
According to Bloomberg data, headline CPI is expected to have increased 2.6% year over year in June, up from a 2.4% rise in May. On a monthly basis, prices are forecast to climb 0.3%, marking an acceleration from the 0.1% gain the prior month.
On a “core” basis, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, the annual inflation rate for June is expected to come in at 2.9%, a slight pickup from May’s 2.8%. Core prices are also projected to climb 0.3% month over month, outpacing the previous 0.1% rise seen in May.
In May, falling car and apparel prices, categories seen as early indicators of tariff impacts, contributed to a cooler-than-expected core CPI reading. But economists expect those trends to reverse in June, potentially pushing core inflation higher.
The report lands amid renewed trade tensions between the US and other countries. President Trump has unveiled new letters to over 20 countries outlining tariffs ranging from 20% to 50%, including a 35% duty on Canadian goods and 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union.
He has also floated sweeping 15% to 20% tariffs on most trading partners. The EU, in response, is scrambling to negotiate while preparing potential countermeasures.
