In July 2025, the copper market is teetering between booming production and growing political uncertainty. Mining giants such as Rio Tinto and Antofagasta have delivered strong first-half results, indicating that global copper supply is in good shape.
Yet, looming trade disruptions, especially U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to slap a 50% tariff on copper imports, are stirring fear in the market. While copper demand remains healthy due to clean energy and electrification trends, the tariff shock and rising inventories have shaken investor confidence. Prices, although still up year-on-year, are losing steam fast.
Rio Tinto Delivers a Copper Surge
Rio Tinto’s second-quarter copper production hit 229,000 tonnes—its highest in years. That’s a 15% jump year-on-year and a 9% increase from Q1. The figures include both copper concentrate and refined metal.
- CuEq production: Up 13% YoY for Q2
- Half-year growth: 6% YoY
- Oyu Tolgoi mine: Star performer with 87,000 tonnes, up 65% YoY
- Escondida (Rio’s share): Production rose 4% despite lower ore grades
Rio Tinto CEO Jakob Stausholm called it a “strong operational quarter,” noting the company’s consistent performance in bauxite and iron ore as well. He emphasized that Oyu Tolgoi remains on track to become the fourth-largest copper mine globally by 2030.
2025 Guidance
The company expects to reach the higher end of its full-year copper production guidance—between 780,000 and 850,000 tonnes. Cost controls remain strong, helping Rio position itself well for the second half.
Meanwhile, expansion efforts are ongoing, with two key projects in the pipeline:
- Resolution Copper in Arizona
- Winu Project in Western Australia
Rio’s flagship Oyu Tolgoi mine is expected to scale up to 500,000 tonnes per year between 2028 and 2036, further strengthening its global copper dominance.
Antofagasta’s Copper Surge Meets Market Caution
Chile’s Antofagasta also posted solid growth, producing 314,900 tonnes of copper in H1 2025—a 10.6% increase year-over-year.
Strong output from the Centinela Concentrates and Los Pelambres mines offset a decline in cathode production.
- However, the company has chosen to keep its annual guidance unchanged at 660,000–700,000 tonnes, similar to its 2024 figures.
That cautious outlook reflects the uncertain pricing environment and potential headwinds from global trade actions.
In general, tighter regulations, environmental rules, and rising production costs are pushing more companies to merge. Experts say that over the next 25 years, the copper industry will need more than $2.1 trillion in investments to keep up with global demand.
At the same time, companies are focusing more on strong ESG practices to boost transparency and improve their sustainability efforts.
Trump’s Tariff Threat Rattles the Copper Market
The copper market’s biggest shock came from Trump’s announcement: a 50% tariff on all copper imports into the U.S., set to take effect August 1, 2025. However, the goal is to boost domestic production and reduce reliance on imports.
The U.S. Geological Survey highlighted key facts about the U.S. copper market
- U.S. copper production: Covers just over half of domestic demand. In 2024, U.S. mine production of recoverable copper was approximately 1.10 million tonnes, down from ~1.13 Mt in 2023.
- Arizona’s contribution: Over two-thirds of the U.S. copper supply
- 2024 imports: Over 90% came from Chile, Canada, and Peru. Refined copper imports reached roughly 0.81 Mt in 2024
- The U.S. consumes about 1.6 Mt annually but only produces ~1.1 Mt domestically, leading to a net import reliance of nearly 45%.
Reuters reported that the tariff news sparked a surge in imports as buyers rushed to stockpile ahead of the deadline. Reports say that now, inventories have built up at ports across Texas, New Jersey, and California. Buyers are drawing from these stockpiles instead of placing fresh orders, leading to weaker near-term demand.
Experts warn that if domestic prices rise too quickly, the U.S. might be forced to reverse the tariffs or risk triggering inflation in downstream industries.
Copper Prices Retreat Despite Strong Demand
Despite a solid demand backdrop, copper prices have begun to slip. As per SMM reports, LME copper dipped 0.2% to $9,663 per metric ton, while SHFE copper fell 0.27% to 78,320 yuan per metric ton.
Meanwhile, copper futures dropped below $5.50 per pound.
This price retreat reflects softer U.S. demand, swelling inventories, and investor caution ahead of the August tariff deadline. Although the broader copper market has gained 24% year-on-year, it’s up just 2% so far in 2025, signaling fading momentum despite strong underlying fundamentals.
The copper market is facing a rare moment where supply growth and political tension collide. Nonetheless, it is essential for power systems because of its conductivity. This is why it’s significant for numerous low-carbon products and data centers.
Mining leaders like Rio Tinto and Antofagasta are reporting record or near-record output, with new projects coming online and long-term demand drivers intact. But Trump’s tariff bombshell is reshaping global trade flows, spooking investors, and forcing market players to reassess their strategies.
