Market Roundup
• EU ECB Deposit Facility Rate (Jul): 2.00%, 2.00% forecast, 2.00% previous
• EU ECB Marginal Lending Facility: 2.40%, 2.40% previous
• EU ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul): 2.15%, 2.15% forecast, 2.15% previous
• US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun): -0.10, -0.16 previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,955K, 1,960K forecast, 1,951K previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 217K, 227K forecast, 221K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 224.50K, 229.50K previous
• Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May): -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous
• Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jun): 0.4%, -0.9% previous
• Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (May): -1.1%, -1.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
• Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): 1.6%, -1.1% previous
•US S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul): 54.6, 52.9 previous
•US S&P Global Services PMI (Jul): 55.2, 53.0 forecast, 52.9 previous
•US New Home Sales (MoM) (Jun): 0.6%, -11.6% previous
•US New Home Sales (Jun): 627K, 649K forecast, 623K previous
•US Natural Gas Storage: 23B, 28B forecast, 46B previous
•US KC Fed Composite Index (Jul): 1, -2 previous
•US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul): -3, 5 previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.245%, 4.230% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.265%, 4.270% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:30 Japan CPI (YoY) (Jul): 1.8% previous
•23:30 Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jul): 3.0% forecast, 3.1% previous
•23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Jul): 3.1% previous
•23:30 Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Jul): -0.4% previous
•23:50 Japan Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (YoY): 3.2% forecast, 3.3% previous
•23:50 Japan Foreign Bonds Buying: 759.3B previous
•23:50 Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks: 446.0B previous
•05:00 Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (May) -0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index (MoM) (May) 1.1% forecast,-3.4% previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index (May) 105.3 forecast,104.2 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Thursday after ECB holds rates steady, as expected. The European Central Bank left its policyrate at 2%, as expected, on Thursday, taking a break after a year of policy easing to wait for clarity over Europe’s future trade relations with the United States. The central bank’s cautious stance comes as eurozone inflation has returned to the ECB’s 2% target alongside signs of economic resilience. ECB President Christine Lagarde said policymakers were more keen on the outlook on trade and its impact on the economy before deciding on further interest rate cuts. The central bank’s cautious stance comes as eurozone inflation has returned to the ECB’s 2% target alongside signs of economic resilience. On the data front, a latest survey showed euro zone business activity accelerated faster than forecast this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1828(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1877(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1500(June 16th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Thursday after weaker-than-expected UK PMI and CBI data reinforced concerns over the country’s economic outlook. British businesses are finding it increasingly difficult to grow, and the labour market is softening, yet underlying inflation pressures remain, according to recent surveys a combination likely to prompt the Bank of England to proceed cautiously with interest rate cuts.S&P Global’s flash UK Composite PMI fell to 51.0 in July from 52.0 in June, signaling slower private sector growth and coming in below expectations of 51.8. While still above the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, the reading suggests the UK economy is losing momentum. The services PMI slipped to 51.2 in July from 52.8 in June, while the manufacturing PMI rose for the fourth straight month to 48.2 from 47.7, remaining in contraction for the 10th consecutive month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3680(July 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3439(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as domestic data showed that retail sales declined in May, but the move was limited ahead of a Bank of Canada interest rate decision next week. Canada’s retail sales shrank by 1.1% in May from April as consumers curtailed car purchases and spent less at supermarkets, convenience stores and on alcohol. A preliminary estimate for June pointed to a rebound of 1.6%.The BoC has kept its benchmark rate on hold at 2.75% since March, after slashing it by two and a quarter percentage points in the previous nine months. The loonie was trading 0.3% lower at 1.3635 per U.S. dollar, after moving in a range of 1.3592 to 1.3646. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3691(50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3763 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3589(Jul 7th low ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3553(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially dipped but recovered ground against the yen on Thursday as dollar was buoyed by upbeat economic data and growing optimism around recent trade developments between the United States and several key partners. A U.S. Labor Department report showed jobless claims last week fell to 217,000 well below estimates signaling continued resilience in the job market. U.S. business activity gained momentum in July, but companies hiked prices on goods and services, fueling economists’ predictions of faster inflation in the months ahead, largely driven by rising import tariffs. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies edged up 0.17% to 97.36. The dollar rose 0.27% against the yen to 146.88, after briefly touching a two-week low of 145.86 earlier in the session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.14(38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.65(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.11(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks ended higher on Thursday as the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations. Gains were also supported by strong bank earnings and signs of easing trade
UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.85 percent, Germany’s Dax ended up by 0.23 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.41 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended at record highs on Thursday, boosted by strong earnings from Alphabet, which lifted sentiment around major AI-related stocks.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.70% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.07% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.18% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices declined for a second consecutive session on Thursday, weighed down by improving global trade sentiment that reduced the appeal of safe-haven assets.
Spot gold was down 0.5% at $3,370.69 per ounce, by 01:45 p.m. ET (1745 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.7% lower at $3,373.5.
Oil prices climbed 1% on Thursday, supported by a larger-than-expected U.S. crude inventory draw and anticipated cuts to Russian gasoline exports, which offset the impact of Chevron receiving U.S. approval to resume output in Venezuela.
Brent crude futures settled at $69.18 a barrel, up 67 cents or 0.98%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $66.03 a barrel, up 78 cents, or 1.20%.
