As President Trump’s tariff policy pans out, UBS strategists signal it won’t cause a recession or spell the end of a bull market.
“Our base case remains that US tariffs will eventually settle around 15%,” Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer for Americas and global head of equities, wrote in a note on Monday morning.
“While this would be the highest since the 1930s, and six times higher than when Trump returned to office, we do not expect it to cause a recession or end the equity bull market.”
In recent days, Trump has unleashed a flurry of trade deals, including a 90-day reprieve on goods imported from Mexico and 15% tariffs on EU goods.
On Friday, Trump signed an order to hike tariffs on Canada to 35%, while he kept a baseline minimum rate of 10% across all partners.The US is set to implement duties this week.
