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Investors’ expectations about inflation and the Federal Reserve have boosted housing market activity slightly, but don’t expect any big improvements in the near future.
During the week ending Aug. 14, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.58% nationwide, Freddie Mac reported. That’s the lowest in 10 months. The 30-year-fixed moves in line with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which has been lurching lower since mid-July.
Bond yields – rates – fall when prices rise, and vice versa. As investors dial back their expectations about inflation and up their forecasts for Fed rate cuts, bonds become more attractive.
On Aug. 13, a measure of trader expectations for rate cuts showed near universal consensus that the central bank would deliver one 25-basis cut at its September meeting – though that was trimmed to about 90% on Aug. 14, when a fresh report showed wholesale inflation was hotter than expected.
Freddie’s weekly data was collected before the producer price index release Aug. 14, however, and it can take a little more time for mortgage rates to respond to market conditions.
Lower borrowing costs have helped boost the housing market over the past few weeks. Mortgage applications were about 11% higher in the most recent week, with applications to refinance up 23%, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. And applications for home purchases were 22% higher than at the same time last year.
The bigger question is what happens next. Fed officials are caught between responding to news about a slowing job market and the unknowns about inflation as tariff effects take hold.
And even if the central bank does decide to cut rates this fall, that doesn’t necessarily mean that Treasury yields will follow. An analysis out Aug. 14 before the producer price index found that when rate cuts take place outside of recessions, like in 1995-1996, 2019 and 2024, 10-year yields move very little – and may even increase.
“This makes sense to us,” wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of the financial-markets analytics company DataTrek Research. “When the Fed is fine-tuning policy rates rather than responding to recession, the market can read that as either a sign that inflation is under control or that lower rates might spark an increase in aggregate demand that pushes prices higher.”
Just last fall, the Fed lowered its benchmark rate a full percentage point, but mortgage rates ended the year higher than they did in September.
Still, the housing market remains pricey, and many buyers are skittish about their own finances, pointed out Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS.
“Markets with more inventory and more room for buyers to negotiate on price could see more buyers taking advantage of slightly lower rates,” she said in a release out Aug. 14. “In addition, higher-income buyers who are feeling more economically secure right now may jump on lower rates. The downtick in rates may not ease the affordability hurdle of other first-time and moderate-income buyers.”
