GARY WISENBAKER: Bond market hints at brighter mortgage picture
Published 7:25 am Saturday, August 16, 2025
If you’ve been watching mortgage rates lately and wondering whether relief is on the horizon, the answer lies in the bond market. Since January, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury has been bouncing but quietly trending to a calmer place—good news for anyone in the market for a home. However, the Valdosta housing market is showing more complex trends.
At the start of the year, the 10-year sat at roughly 4.57%. It climbed as high as 4.79% in mid-January, only to sink to just above 4.0% by early April. May brought another spike, touching 4.58%, but by early August the yield had eased back toward 4.3%.
And why is this important? The 10-year Treasury is the key benchmark that influences the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. When the 10-year drifts lower—or even stays steady—mortgage rates tend to follow, often with a bit of lag. Right now, Freddie Mac’s survey pegs the national average 30-year fixed at 6.63% as of August 7, down from 6.74% two weeks earlier.
That rate, however, is considerably lower in the local market.
The spread—the gap between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates—remains wider than usual. Historically, that difference runs about 1.7 to 2 percentage points, but lately it has been hovering between 2.2 and 2.4 points. If that spread narrows and the 10-year holds around 4.3%, mortgage rates could edge from the mid-6% range toward the low-6% range later this year.
Mortgage rates don’t have to collapse to spark action in the housing market—small moves can matter. For example, a 0.25% drop in rates shaves about $17 off the monthly payment per $100,000 borrowed. On a $250,000 mortgage, that’s roughly $42 a month back in the buyer’s pocket. A half-point drop doubles the savings.
That extra breathing room has ripple effects by flushing out more qualified buyers, facilitating faster sales, bringing price stability and boosting new construction. In fact, according to Homes.com mortgage applications increased nearly 11% last week.
However, local market data, from the South Georgia MLS, suggests a more nuanced picture.
From January 1 to August 5, new residential listings in Valdosta decreased by 4.87%, from 1,952 in 2024 to 1,857 in 2025. On the bright side, the median sales price in Valdosta climbed by 4.42%, reaching $255,000, and the average sales price increased by 4.08% to $274,299. Closed sales volume also saw a slight uptick of 1.15%.
Despite these declines in some areas, the median sales price in Q3 rose by 3.04% to $252,450, and the average sales price climbed by 5.32%. This suggests that while activity is down, prices are still holding relatively firm.
The months’ supply of inventory has also increased dramatically, rising from 2.44 months in Q3 2024 to 4.49 months in Q3 2025. This indicates a slower sales pace and suggests buyers have more choices.
The increase in months’ supply of inventory indicates a shift towards a more balanced market, or potentially even a buyer’s market.
However, the continued increase in median and average sales prices suggests that demand is still present, and that prices may not decline significantly in the short term. This could be due to a lack of available inventory in certain segments or continued buyer confidence.
As we head into the fall, keep an eye on both interest rates and local listing and sales data. The
combination of a calmer bond market and a more balanced inventory could create opportunities for buyers, while sellers may need to be more strategic with pricing and marketing.
In short: keep one eye on those 10-year Treasury yields and the other firmly planted on the local real estate numbers. They’re not just Wall Street metrics—they’re the twin signals that will determine whether Valdosta’s housing market maintains its balance or shifts into a new phase as 2025 heads into the home stretch.
And it’s still a good time to get in the market: buyers are out there and sellers have confidence.
Gary Wisenbaker is a REALTOR© with Century 21 Realty Advisors and can be reached at gary50155@gmail.com and (912) 713-2553.
