A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 4, 2022.
Source: NYSE
Stock futures were up slightly Tuesday evening as investors brace for a long night amid a contentious U.S. presidential race that will have big ramifications for the markets and economy.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 173 points, or about 0.4%. S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed. Futures for the small cap Russell 2000 gained 0.6%.
Americans cast their votes across the country in the tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The first polling places will close Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET in parts of Kentucky and Indiana. Follow CNBC’s 2024 election live blog here.
Trump’s agenda of tax cuts could give Corporate America a tangible boost, but steep tariffs and a potential global trade war under his presidency could cause more uncertainty and a resurgence of inflation. In a Harris administration, the risk of tighter regulations could bring more scrutiny to industries such as banks and health care, while Democrats’ support for clean energy could lift electric vehicle companies and solar firms.
Investors are also closely watching if the partisan makeup of the houses of Congress remains divided. A Republican or Democratic sweep could lead to more drastic spending changes or a big revamp of tax policy.
Goldman Sachs predicts that a Trump win and Republican sweep of Congress would spark a 3% pop in the S&P 500. Even a Trump win and a divided Congress would cause about a 1.5% gain, the bank predicts. On the other hand, a Harris win with a divided Congress would cause a 1.5% drop in the S&P 500, the bank told its clients.
“I very much ascribe to that view that a Trump victory would be very good for stocks,” Jason Trennert, chairman at Strategas, said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Power Lunch.” “And I think a Harris victory would not be particularly good for risk assets.”
But traders may have to wait until later in the week before election results are certain. A long period of uncertainty before the result is known could weight on markets.
The stock market staged a broad rally Tuesday before the election results were in with the S&P 500 gaining 1.2%, bringing the benchmark’s 2024 gains to more than 21%. The blue-chip Dow climbed more than 400 points in the session.
Following the election, another market-moving event looms this week in the latest Federal Reserve rate decision on Thursday. Traders are pricing in a 99% chance of a quarter-point cut following September’s half-point reduction, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
