(Bloomberg) — A slew of trades around the world tied to Donald Trump’s rising presidential prospects notched decisive moves, with stock futures extending gains, Treasury yields jumping and the dollar up the most since February 2023.
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S&P 500 futures climbed 1.2%, 10-year yields surged 12 basis points to a four-month high of 4.39% and Bitcoin spiked to a record – moves that reflect rising wagers on a Trump presidency, with Vice President Kamala Harris’s path to victory narrowing.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was up 1.1%. The Mexican peso slumped 2.3%, while the Japanese yen and the euro slid at least 1.2%. Contracts on the Russell 2000 Index added 2.5%. Smaller companies with typically domestic operations are seen as potential gainers in a Republican win, given the party’s protectionist stance. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. surged in trading on Robinhood Markets Inc.’s 24-hour platform.
Equities in Japan and Australia climbed, while shares in Hong Kong slipped. European stock futures are marginally lower.
A cohort of investors on Wall Street have wagered that Trump’s pro-growth stance on industrial policy, corporate tax cuts and tariffs would boost stocks and could fuel inflation — spurring bond yields and the US dollar higher. Crypto is seen as benefiting from relaxed regulation and Trump’s public support for the digital currency.
“We see some of the perceived Trump trades such as small caps, cryptocurrencies, interest rates and even Trump Media having a boost right now,” said Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services Inc. “Still, we have a long night to go.”
In contrast to Tuesday’s relatively calm session, Wall Street saw the potential for outsized moves almost regardless of the election’s outcome.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk said a Republican sweep may push the S&P 500 up by 3%, while a decline of the same size is possible should the Democrats win both the presidency and Congress. Moves would be half as much in the event of a divided government. Andrew Tyler at JPMorgan Securities said anything other than a Democratic sweep is likely to cause stocks to rise.
A Morgan Stanley note says risk-taking appetite may dip in the event of a Republican sweep as fiscal concerns fuel yields, but if bond markets take it in their stride the likes of growth-sensitive cyclical stocks would rise. Meanwhile, it sees renewable-energy firms and tariff-exposed consumer stocks rallying under a scenario in which Harris emerges the victor with a divided Congress, while a corresponding fall in yields would benefit housing-sensitive sectors.
Here’s What Wall Street Says:
Vigilantes are in full control. Panic is starting to set in, the coiling we expected is happening.
The market is pricing in more of Trump sweep now. Through the night, if it looks like Trump is outperforming, I think the move makes sense.
Thin early Asia market liquidity and excitement from early results has amplified market moves of pricing in higher Trump odds.
Liquidity is still fairly thin, so things might have been exacerbated. We’re going to likely see continued wild swings through the night.
While some equity market volatility this week is inevitable, we do not expect the likeliest election outcomes to change our 12-month view on US equities. We expect the S&P 500 to rise to 6,600 by the end of 2025, driven by our expectations of benign US growth, lower interest rates, and the continued structural tailwind from AI. We expect these market drivers to remain in place regardless of who wins the US election.
Our 10-year yield forecast is 3.5% for June 2025. While we would expect yields to land somewhat higher than 3.5% under a Trump presidency, we would still anticipate positive returns for bonds over the coming 12 months. We do not expect the election result to shift the Fed from a path toward lower interest rates, and inflation remains on a downward trajectory.
We would expect the dollar to be somewhat stronger under Trump than Harris. More pro-growth policies, likely higher interest rates, and tariffs could all provide tailwinds for the dollar.
Our historical playbook analysis reminds us that the S&P 500 tends to rise regardless of the balance of power in Washington.
The strongest backdrops have tended to be a Democratic Presidency with a split or Republican Congress, and Republicans controlling the White House along with both chambers of Congress. In this context, we are more focused on longer-term opportunities that may open up from big gaps up or down around the event rather than short-term trades.
Investors should look past the election and focus on the fundamentals of what drives markets. The economy and earnings continue to be better than expected, most stocks are reasonably priced and the Fed is in an accommodative mode and is expected to cut interest rates again this week. There is an excellent backdrop for stocks right now.
We view a Trump win, likely coming in a sweep scenario, as net positive for equities as it preserves favorable corporate tax treatment and builds on tax elements that expired. A Harris win, likely coming with a divided Congress, would be mildly negative due to fewer provisions of expiring tax legislation getting extended due to political gridlock.
First off, we would simply tell investors not to overreact.
We believe we are set for a strong end-of-year rally for many reasons, two of which are a possible chase scenario by the bears who finally have to capitulate, and performance anxiety from large money managers who may have missed the big moves in certain names.
We do believe the market prefers Trump for lower taxes and less regulation, and with Kamala, we likely see higher taxes and more regulation, but again with the balance of power, we may not see many of their proposed policies go into effect.
Key events this week:
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI, PPI, Wednesday
China trade, forex reserves, Thursday
UK BOE rate decision, Thursday
US Fed rate decision, Thursday
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 1.2% as of 2:08 p.m. Tokyo time
Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) rose 1.7%
Japan’s Topix rose 1.6%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.9%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.6%
The Shanghai Composite rose 0.2%
Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.4%
E-Mini Russ 2000 Dec24 rose 2.5%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 1.1%
The euro fell 1.3% to $1.0790
The Japanese yen fell 1.2% to 153.43 per dollar
The offshore yuan fell 1% to 7.1702 per dollar
The Mexican peso fell 2.3% to 20.5676
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 6.9% to $73,923.68
Ether rose 6.6% to $2,573.89
Bonds
Commodities
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Richard Henderson, Shikhar Balwani, Carter Johnson, Sydney Maki and Michael Mackenzie.
