As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. We regret to report that long term Raffles Medical Group Ltd (SGX:BSL) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 39% in three years, versus a market return of about 22%. And over the last year the share price fell 22%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted.
It’s worthwhile assessing if the company’s economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let’s do just that.
View our latest analysis for Raffles Medical Group
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Raffles Medical Group saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 12% per year, over the last three years. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 15% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
The company’s earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It’s good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That’s a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. This free interactive report on Raffles Medical Group’s earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Raffles Medical Group’s TSR for the last 3 years was -35%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
Investors in Raffles Medical Group had a tough year, with a total loss of 20% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 18%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 1.5% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It’s always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Raffles Medical Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 2 warning signs for Raffles Medical Group you should know about.
