As an investor, mistakes are inevitable. But you want to avoid the really big losses like the plague. So take a moment to sympathize with the long term shareholders of Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVGI), who have seen the share price tank a massive 72% over a three year period. That might cause some serious doubts about the merits of the initial decision to buy the stock, to put it mildly. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 70% in the last year. Furthermore, it’s down 35% in about a quarter. That’s not much fun for holders.
Now let’s have a look at the company’s fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
Check out our latest analysis for Commercial Vehicle Group
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During five years of share price growth, Commercial Vehicle Group moved from a loss to profitability. We would usually expect to see the share price rise as a result. So given the share price is down it’s worth checking some other metrics too.
The company has kept revenue pretty healthy over the last three years, so we doubt that explains the falling share price. There doesn’t seem to be any clear correlation between the fundamental business metrics and the share price. That could mean that the stock was previously overrated, or it could spell opportunity now.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It’s probably worth noting we’ve seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. If you are thinking of buying or selling Commercial Vehicle Group stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Commercial Vehicle Group shareholders are down 70% for the year, but the market itself is up 27%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year’s performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 11% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 6 warning signs for Commercial Vehicle Group (of which 2 shouldn’t be ignored!) you should know about.
