Oil’s main international benchmark fell below $70 per barrel for the first time since the end of 2021 amid mounting concerns about slowing global growth.
Meanwhile, global stock markets diverged Tuesday as traders assessed the outlook for interest rates in the United States and Europe and awaited the US presidential debate.
Brent crude slumped more than three percent to below the $70 per barrel level for the since December 2021, while the main US contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), tumbled four percent at one point.
Oil analyst Tamas Varga at PVM Oil Associates said the OPEC oil cartel revising its demand estimates lower was one reason for the fall, but not the main one as the changes were minimal.
“Chinese economic woes — August crude oil imports fell 7 percent on the year — and the growing belief that the Fed will only cut 0.25 percent next week weigh more heavily in the current sell-off,” he told AFP.
Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said even mitigating factors like impending interest rate cuts and OPEC+ holding off on production increases was not enough to stem the downward trend.
“Oil bulls are not willing to swim against such a strong tide — and that also adds to the momentum,” she said.
US equities slumped Friday after disappointing US jobs data rekindled fears the Federal Reserve had waited too long to begin cutting interest rates and the economy could fall into recession.
While they rebounded on Monday, the recovery lost steam on Tuesday with the Dow lower in late morning trading while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite held onto gains.
Traders were also keeping an eye on US politics.
The sole scheduled debate between US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is a potentially game-changing moment for the 2024 US presidential election.
Investors were also looking ahead to US inflation data due Wednesday.
“Tomorrow’s US inflation figures could be the next key test of investor sentiment,” noted AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut US interest rates at next week’s meeting but debate surrounds whether it will be by 25 or 50 basis points, with some arguing that going for the bigger option could suggest decision-makers are worried.
But Tuesday’s plunge in oil prices may indicate that those fears are outweighed by concern that policymakers are behind the curve.
“Financial markets have shifted their focus from bringing down inflation to shoring up economic growth,” said Saira Malik, chief investment officer at asset manager Nuveen.
“Market volatility has climbed amid downside surprises in macroeconomic data — especially labour market indicators.”
Fresh worries about China’s economy are also dampening sentiment, with a mixed trade data doing little to soothe investor concerns.
Data showed exports jumped in August but imports fell well short of expectations as the country’s leaders struggle to boost consumption.
That came a day after news that inflation rose less than expected in July, reinforcing the view that moves to boost consumer demand and business activity have not taken hold.
China’s leaders are now facing pressure to unveil fresh stimulus for the world’s number two economy, although they have shown little desire to embark on the bazooka-like spending seen during the global financial crisis.
European stocks finished the day lower, with the ECB set to cut rates at a meeting on Thursday.
Official data in Britain on Tuesday showed wages grew at the slowest pace in two years, indicating that the Bank of England could next week decide against cutting interest rates for a second meeting in a row.
– Key figures around 1530 GMT –
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 4.0 percent at $65.96 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 3.4 percent at $69.40 per barrel
New York – Dow: DOWN 0.3 percent at 40,697.79 points
New York – S&P 500: UP 0.2 percent at 5,483.84
New York – Nasdaq Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 16,975.09
London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.8 percent at 8,205.98 (close)
Paris – CAC 40: DOWN 0.2 percent at 7,407.55 (close)
Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 1.0 percent at 18,265.92 (close)
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.2 percent at 36,159.16 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.2 percent at 17,234.09 (close)
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 2,744.19 (close)
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1026 from $1.1041 on Monday
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3064 from $1.3075
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 142.60 yen from 143.11 yen
Euro/pound: DOWN at 84.41 pence from 84.42 pence
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