NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stock indexes are drifting near their records Monday as Wall Street gears up for the most anticipated meeting of the Federal Reserve in years.
The S&P 500 was 0.2% lower in midday trading after flitting between gains and losses earlier in the morning. It’s sitting just 0.9% below its all-time high set in July.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 83 points, or 0.2%, as of 11:30 a.m. Eastern time, after climbing above its record closing high earlier in the day. The Nasdaq composite was down 0.7%.
Oracle rose 5.4% to help lead the market, continuing a strong run that began last week with a better-than-expected profit report. Alcoa also jumped 9% after saying it would sell its ownership stake in a Saudi Arabian joint venture to Saudi Arabian Mining Co. for $950 million in stock and $150 million in cash. But drops for some influential Big Tech stocks dragged on indexes, including declines of 2.8% for Apple and 1.9% for Nvidia.
Treasury yields eased in the bond market ahead of what’s expected to be the week’s main event. On Wednesday, the widespread expectation is for the Federal Reserve to cut its main interest rate for the first time in more than four years to deliver some relief to the economy.
The only question is by how much the Fed will cut. Traders are shifting more bets toward a larger-than-usual move of half a percentage point, according to data from CME Group. They’re anticipating a 61% chance the Fed will go beyond the more traditional cut of a quarter of a percentage point. That’s up from 50% on Friday and just 30% a week ago.
The difference between a half-point cut and a quarter may sound academic, but it can have far-ranging effects. While lowering rates relieves pressure on the economy, it can also give inflation more fuel.
The Federal Reserve has been keeping its main interest rate at a two-decade high in hopes of slowing the economy enough to stifle high inflation. With inflation having eased substantially from its peak two summers ago, the Fed has said it can turn more focus to bolstering the slowing job market and economy. Some critics say it may be moving too late, increasing the risk of a possible recession.
A Fed cut of half a percentage point would likely be the best case for the stock market in the very short term, according to Michael Wilson and other strategists at Morgan Stanley. But that’s only if the Fed can convince investors it’s not getting forced into a bigger-than-usual cut because of worries about a recession, among other factors.
Still, the more important thing for where stocks are heading over the next three to six months will be how well the job market holds up, according to Wilson. If employment weakens, stocks could fall regardless of whether the Fed cuts by half or a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury edged down to 3.63% from 3.66% late Friday. The two-year yield, which moves more closely with expectations for the Fed, eased to 3.55% from 3.59%.
That was despite a report in the morning showing manufacturing in New York state returned to growth in September. That surprised economists, who were expecting another month of contraction for an area of the economy that’s been hit hard by high interest rates.
On Wall Street, Carl Icahn’s Icahn Enterprises rose 7.1% after it said a U.S. judge dismissed a proposed class-action lawsuit against the company, one based on allegations by a research firm that looks for financial irregularities and tries to profit when the stock prices fall.
Fertilizer producer Mosaic fell 4.8% after it said electrical equipment failures at mines and Hurricane Francine will reduce its production of potash and phosphate in the current quarter.
In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed amid mostly modest movements across Europe and Asia. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.3% after data released over the weekend showed China’s economy slowed further in August.
Markets in Japan, mainland China and South Korea were closed for holidays.
