Traders work on the New York Stock Exchange floor on Sept. 13, 2024.
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Investors on Tuesday will parse retail sales data for August for one final glimpse into the health of the U.S. consumer ahead of the Fed rate decision. Economists polled by Dow Jones are bracing for a 0.2% decline. Excluding autos, they see a 0.2% gain. The results could affect the rate cut outcome.
Wall Street is on standby for the Fed’s long-anticipated rate cut, a move that could help boost earnings growth for companies following a backdrop of steep borrowing costs and high inflation. The Fed first embarked on its aggressive hiking campaign in March 2022.
While Wall Street expects a cut Wednesday, the market is divided on the size of the potential reduction. Traders are currently pricing in a 67% chance that the central bank eases rates by 50 basis points, according to CME Group’s Fed Watch tool. That’s up from a roughly 47% chance Friday.
“Market expectations are split between a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point rate cut, as the decision is complicated by conflicting signals of solid economic activity but a weakening labor market,” said Principal Asset Management’s Seema Shah. “Rarely have market expectations been so torn, so close to a [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting.”
While a 50 basis point cut isn’t out of the question, the chief global strategist thinks that the Fed should take a more cautious approach to cutting and ease rates by 25 basis points. She is forecasting additional 25 basis point cuts in November and December.
In other economic news, industrial production and manufacturing production data is due out for August, along with September’s National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index.
