“I think, therefore I am.” —René Descartes Investing isn’t a test of who’s right; it’s a test of who updates best. In that scenario, success doesn’t go to those with perfect predictions, it goes to those who adapt their views as the world changes. In markets shaped by noise, bias, and incomplete information, the edge belongs not to the boldest but to the most calibrated. In a world of uncertainty and shifting narratives, this post proposes a new mental model for investing: Bayesian edge investing (BEI) — a dynamic framework that replaces static rationality with probabilistic reasoning, belief-calibrated confidence, and…
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There could be shifts to mortgage rates this summer, experts say, but multiple factors could have an impact. Getty Images/iStockphoto While inflation has declined from its recent peak, today’s inflation rate is still higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, leaving the Fed to maintain its careful approach to the rate environment. Mortgage rates, in turn, have hovered in the high 6% range, keeping many prospective homebuyers out of the market.So, as we head into summer, the big question is: Will the mortgage rate climate change? Economic reports on inflation, employment and consumer spending will help determine whether borrowing costs…
Image source: Getty Images Dividend shares are dividend shares and growth stocks are growth stocks, and never the twain shall meet. But when they do, investors are in for a treat. Especially when those dividend shares offer ultra-high yields as well. Like these two FTSE 100 stocks currently do. British American Tobacco is on fire I was impressed to see that British American Tobacco (LSE: BATS) shares had jumped 50% in the last year. Isn’t the cigarette maker supposed to be in a declining industry? One that is slowly being regulated out of existence? If so, nobody told the British American Tobacco share price. The…
Image source: Getty Images Investing in stocks and shares through an ISA offers a powerful route to long-term wealth creation. For an investor aiming to transform a £20,000 ISA into a £1m portfolio, the most important factors are time, consistent contributions, and the power of compounding. Compounding is key Compounding occurs when investment returns are reinvested, allowing gains to generate further returns. For instance, if an investor achieves an average annual return of 10%, a £20,000 investment could potentially grow to £1m in about 38 years without any additional contributions. While this is a lengthy period, starting early allows compounding…
Opinion by John W.H. Denton AO – Jose Vinals – Shinta Kamdani (new york)Monday, June 16, 2025Inter Press ServiceNEW YORK, Jun 16 (IPS) – Geopolitical tensions – from deepening rivalries between major powers to regional conflicts – have placed acute pressure on the international development agenda. Development assistance from major funders has been on the decline. The world is becoming more unpredictable.The following piece explores the urgent need to mobilize private capital in support of sustainable development – particularly in advance of the upcoming Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4), taking place in Sevilla, Spain from June 30 to…
Image source: Getty Images The Metro Bank (LSE:MTRO) share price jumped 14% in the first few hours of trading today (16 June) following weekend newspaper reports that it could be a takeover target. However, this is just a rumour. The City is full of speculation that often turns out to be just that. Nothing’s certain until either party makes a formal announcement to the stock market. In my opinion, it’s never a good idea to buy a stock on the basis of gossip. If talk of a bid proves to be unfounded, the share price could fall as quickly as…
Partnership demonstrates scale of demand for VCM’s high integrity voluntary carbon market and Enowa’s commitment to compensate for unavoidable emissions Agreement also reflects Enowa’s ambitious decarbonization strategy, which includes developing a 100% net renewable-based energy system at NEOM (TBC, Riyadh) – The Voluntary Carbon Market Company (VCM), a carbon credit company established by PIF and Saudi Tadawul Group, and Enowa, the energy and water subsidiary of NEOM, have announced a long-term agreement to facilitate the delivery of approximately 30 million tonnes of carbon credits within this decade. The scale and duration of the agreement marks a significant milestone in VCM’s…
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Image source: Getty Images Aston Martin (LSE:AML) shares are down 69% over the past two years. That means a £10,000 invested then would be worth just £3,100 today. Someone buying a brand new Aston Martin DBX would have seen less depreciation in percentage terms. What’s behind the fall? The most immediate cause has been a string of disappointing financial results. Over the past two years, Aston Martin’s reported falling vehicle sales, with 2024 seeing an 8.9% drop in deliveries and a 3% decline in revenue to £1.58bn. Concurrently, losses have mounted, with the luxury car company posting a post-tax loss…
Capital markets technology and exchange company Nasdaq announced the launch of the Nasdaq Carbon Academy, a new free educational platform aimed at equipping individuals with skills to integrate carbon dioxide removal (CDR) credits into companies’ emissions reduction strategies. The new academy comes as demand for carbon offset projects and related credits is expected to increase significantly over the next several years, as companies utilize credits as a bridge to their absolute emissions reduction efforts, or to balance difficult to avoid emissions, requiring companies to gain expertise in the area, in order to understand the broad range of carbon credit technologies,…